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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (2930)	6/20/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3115

I believe that much of these were sales of the shares bought a year ago at about $8, there was very heavy buying back then by these same insiders. Maybe they think that 400% in a year is plenty...

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (2930)	6/29/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: William F. Wager, Jr.	Respond to of 3115

The Wall Street Journal -- June 29, 1999 All-Star Analysts 1999 Survey: Computer Software ---- By Lee Gomes Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal First, a little perspective. Whatever Delphic powers the software-industry securities analysts may have possessed last year, investors would have been better off putting their money into an index fund than listening to most of them. The total return on the Standard & Poor's 500 index last year was 28.6% -- some seven percentage points, or 33%, better than the 21.5% median return of the 59 software stock pickers evaluated for the All-Star Analysts Survey. But investors would have been more than amply rewarded for following the advice of any of this year's All-Stars. Rehan Syed of SG Cowen Securities, the sector's top stock picker, posted an estimated 170% return, earning a spot on this year's Home-Run Hitters Team. His top pick: New Era of Networks, a.k.a. Neon, which soared 682%. Neon makes software used by large companies. Its niche of the corporate software market is called "enterprise application integration," one of the boom parts of the high-technology world right now. Mr. Syed, 32 years old, was one of the first to spot the trend back in 1997, and his track record has benefited immensely ever since. "I was drawn to them because they not only had a very early and strong position in a high-growth market segment, but the overall company is well put together in terms of management team and sales culture," he says. "Those are the ingredients for success that we look for." Like most of the other analysts in the sector, Mr. Syed spends the bulk of his time not with household-name companies like Microsoft, but instead with less well-known issues that serve often-esoteric parts of the corporate market. A former software-industry marketing executive, he uses his firsthand knowledge of the industry to spend a lot of time talking to customers, finding out what they are using. This year, Mr. Syed is looking for companies riding the Internet wave. Among the names he mentions are BEA Systems, MicroStrategy, Rational and TSI International. He also remains a fan of Neon. No. 2 on the list is Melissa B. Eisenstat of CIBC World Markets, who had a 120% return and is a three-time All-Star. Her big win last year was Peregrine Systems, up nearly 247% because of boom times in the company's market for "infrastructure-management" products, or software that helps an organization keep track of what it has under its roof. For the rest of 1999, Ms. Eisenstat, 37, likes companies with relatively low product prices, to better keep purchases from getting nixed by year-2000-wary chief executives. She mentions BindView Development, which makes security products for local-area networks. Sanjiv G. Hingorani, the No. 3 stock picker, had a 101% return in his work at ING Baring Furman Selz. His big winner was Compuware, whose mixture of high-end software he calls "one of the best portfolios in the business." Back for his second year as an All-Star, Mr. Hingorani also won an award for earnings-estimate accuracy. He continues to like Compuware this year, saying it will withstand the "crowding-out effect" he predicts will happen as companies devote their resources to getting their computers ready for the big date change. It isn't quite all work for the three analysts; they occasionally close up their spreadsheets in the interest of a life. Mr. Hingorani, 39, prowls for hot new restaurants in his global travels, while the New York-based Ms. Eisenstat is often visiting her family in California. As for Mr. Syed, he finds succor by heeding the call of the wild, hiking with his wife in the hills and vales of New England. --Bill