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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (62345)	6/14/1999 10:28:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Skeeter Bug, I must confess that it is beyond me as to why, exactly, the 95% (which is the proportion of the number of winning periods to the total number of periods in the experiment) should drop, if after adjusting for inflation each of the winning periods still remain a winning period (as was my claim). I suspect that your claim is that the absolute gains in each of the winning periods will necessarily go down when adjusted for inflation. While true, that has got nothing to do with the proportion, unless some of the absolute gains turn negative. No mathematical class can teach you that such, while probable, is not a certainty as you claim. [However, a reading comprehension class may be of help.] In any case, the data is out there for all to see. Try the experiment out. As for whether we are in a market peak now, my example was intended to show that market peaks are rare (and much rarer than what investment gurus - who declare market tops on a fortnightly basis - will have you believe) and hence hard to predict. Evidently, you seem to believe that you know better. That's fine with me as I fully appreciate the human need to have confidence in one's (futile) ability to predict the future. -BGR.