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Non-Tech : James Cramer -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Adam Weiner who wrote (652)6/14/1999 11:10:00 PM
From: mr.mark  Respond to of 766
 
excerpt from

A Random Walk
Down Wall Street
by BURTON G. MALKIEL

What Is a Random Walk?

A random walk is one in which future steps or directions cannot be
predicted on the basis of past actions. When the term is applied to the
stock market, it means that short-run changes in stock prices cannot be
predicted. Investment advisory services, earnings predictions, and
complicated chart patterns are useless. On Wall Street, the term "random
walk" is an obscenity. It is an epithet coined by the academic world and
hurled insultingly at the professional soothsayers. Taken to its logical
extreme, it means that a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a
newspaper's financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as
well as one carefully selected by the experts.

Now, financial analysts in pin-striped suits do not like being compared with
bare-assed apes. They retort that academics are so immersed in equations
and Greek symbols (to say nothing of stuffy prose) that they couldn't tell a
bull from a bear, even in a china shop.


wwnorton.com