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Technology Stocks : Qwest Communications (Q) (formerly QWST) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brian Malloy who wrote (4060)	6/15/1999 10:05:00 AM
From: John Coltrane	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6846

>>Considering that most of the regulars on the thread have owned QWST for greater than a year...<< Then why are you all selling and/or looking to sell? First, 65 million shares sold stand as a testament to the "madness of crowds". The nice part is that 65 million shares were "bought" as well. With this thought in mind, one must laugh at such statements that the market has voted (not necessarily by you) "no..no..no". In the reverse one can see that the "market" voted 65 million times "yes..yes..yes". Only the "mad" would see ONLY the negative. Have you read the book? >>I went ahead and sold at 34 11/16. As in "investor", why'd you do that? As a "speculator', cut your losses and take your profits and move on. As an investor, to what and what purpose? >>However, I'm not sure how many investors want to sit around and see whatever is going to be in five years take form. << This is EXACTLY what "investors" do! I'm really tired so I'll attempt to cut to the chase (this was written late last night) QWST's innate value is in its state of the art national fiber optic network and the "potential" that lies within. To date that potential has yet to be fulfilled nor truly approached. Hence, in a "real" way QWST is hugely overvalued and sits on a speculative bubble, which today went pop. Now is it a leak or did it burst? Today, QWST made a step toward fulfilling that potential, but all the focus has been on the price drop. Speculators see the price drop and sell, investors see the "step' and buy upon the drop. As an investor you must have been asking yourself and QWST as the company approaches completion of its national network, what now? There must have been question as the company turns to selling "dark fiber"--why? That wasn't in the plan. Neither was LCI. Why is so much of the network still dark and "unsold"?? The mantra was "If you build it, they will come", but what if they don't?? What's the consequence of the failed baby bell deals? What happens when the baby bells are finally allowed to offer long distance? How's that speculative bubble looking now?? How's it looking to Nacchio? Network virtually complete, lots of "expensive" fiber in the ground and percentage wise not much traffic at all and most importantly not much prospect for any in the "immediate" future either. But then comes the government's move regarding dclecs and most recently, the sleeping giant, T's, very aggressive "offensive" cable move. Something MUST be done, the bubble is getting bigger, but GBLX moves first, because GBLX is sitting on an even larger bubble than QWST. So, Nacchio makes the correct move and attempts to buy some traffic in USWEST, but not only that, he attempts to get a data provider a la UUNET in FRO! And the market says, "no..no..no"! Simply laughable. Question, where's the stock price going to be if Nacchio doesn't start filling those fiber pipes--NOW?? Imagine the headlines, the downgrades---the bubble burst. Nevertheless, if one understands the great "broadband" future to come, then the fiber network has inherent value, so I buy..buy..buy..as the bubble..burst..burst..burst....and expect a $500 non-split stock price in just a few "years". Well, that's my take. What would make me sell?? If I had bought the stock at $90, or $70 or $50 or even $40, but I didn't. So I hold..hold..hold..and look to buy on the burst. Question, why in heck would anyone buy this stock at $90 or $70 or anywhere in between, unless you were to hold..hold..hold...??? Answer, speculation! Last question, what made you buy this stock in the first place? What's changed? I "invested" the technology and its potential, nothings changed about that! Cramer is right, today was a travesty, but he and the rest are the culprits, but that's ok...this guy is funny.