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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (62362)	6/15/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: PaperChase	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

There is no danger to high debt levels UNTIL one can identify exactly in which lending area banks will self destruct. Banks always destroy themselves: Texas oil patch loans in the '70's, commercial real estate and fraud in the '80's, loans to Brazil etc. Some thought that bank derivative exposure overseas would be the stumbling block last year. No dice. So here is the lesson. Watch and listen for where banks will destroy themselves. When you have spotted this event unfolding, then it'll be time to take your money off the table. The event should be national in focus and not regional. And of course, watch for the Fed getting nervous about inflation early next year. They will raise rates slightly this June and then leave them alone for the rest of the year. (They don't want to combine a rate hike later in the year along with nervous jitters over Y2K.) Sorry, no more big kahunas. But don't feel so bad. I once believed a big kahuna could happen but I admitted I was wrong and changed! And of course, you may know that this was one of my biggest criticisms of Mr. Bill. He wouldn't change his view despite overwhelming evidence that the world was not playing to his view..it got to be old after awhile.