To: isdsms who wrote (1173 ) 6/15/1999 9:09:00 AM From: quidditch Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 15615
Remember this is a stock swap. This deal is dead! Gblx is seating comfortably in the driver's seat. Ira, while I hope that GBLX's offers win out in the end, I think that the foregoing statement is both premature and somewhat overstated. Recall (it's certainly not hard) that GBLX's price has eroded since the pair of offers was made, and what may save GBLX, at least in the interim period of jousting, is the apparent protection of the collars. I say apparent because in this situation of a bidding war, the Unocal/Time Warner principles establish that price alone does not conclusively establish a safe harbor for a board of directors to select between competing bidders in order to discharge their fiduciary responsibilities to stockholders. If QWST is perceived as being a better long-term fit for one or both targets (and I can't pretend to know the answer to that--just positing a rhetorical possibility), particularly in the context of offers that are economically similar, the GBLX collar may not be our saving grace after all. Btw, Nacchio was on Money Line last night (adios Lou D). To me, he came across as a confident salesman pitch type, simply asserting that QWST was the better fit, a more seasoned player (implying that GBLX was a mere start-up) and that it had more resources to bring to bear. He came close to demeaning GBLX and its Bermuda jurisdiction. Clearly, there is some bad (or at least hotly contested) blood between Annunziata and Nacchio, to which I think Frank, once humorously, alluded. I certainly don't claim to know how this chess game (what do you call chess when you have four or five players in the same game?) will play out. I will say that I think that the position of some members of the thread looking to prospective short term pops in the stock price of GBLX as and when it appears that one or the other of its bids may fall through, is short-sighted. GBLX had a vision of providing last connecting links in worldwide fiber pipe connectivity around the world. Initially, that strategic vision drove the stock price quite high, and probably ahead of itself, given that the earnings stream is still quite embryonic and fitful. Perhaps, Annunziata insisted on amending that strategic vision, pointing to the necessity of having a quasi-captive network to fill up those pipes in order to generate steadier cash flow, especially earlier in the game. Not unlike Nacchio's and QWST's decision to buy LCI. The orientation of old telephony chiefs? Who knows? Me, I'll hang around, figuring that Annunziata and Winnick have a much better vision of the pieces and how they will all fit together in three to five years' time than I do. Good luck. Regards. Steven