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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17384)	6/15/1999 10:14:00 AM
From: j.o.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz - trying to make some Elliot-sense of the Nets. I am looking at the CMGI chart, which closely resembles the dot.x. I see us near completion of a super-clean wave 3 down. Wave 1 was the first sharp crack down from the all time highs, wave two was the rapid correction, wave three has been a very clean 5-subwave move down, and it looks like we have reached our minimum targets for the 5th subwave. That doesn't rule out an extension, but I would start looking for some signs of short-term bottoming. Plus all of the margin liquidation talk from yesterday is somewhat bullish from a contrarian perspective. If this wave count is correct, we would expect at least a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. This would take us (roughly) back to the 100 level, i.e. 25 points higher from here. Being realistic, one must acknowledge the potential for a vicious crash from these levels as margin calls feed on margin calls, but there are too many people calling for $40 per share in the short term for me to expect it too quickly. I expect an upmove here, possibly starting today. It's better to rely on Don's guitar for the short-term timing however! Don - you're a great help to us all. EDIT - BTW, if this correction materializes, it would be our wave 4. Since wave 2 was sharply up, wave 4 can simply go sideways. In any case, the dominant trend is down right now. I still expect a wave 5 down to follow this wave 4 correction, and it should be at least equal to wave 1...i.e. a 45% fall. That would take us from the potential wave 4 target of 100 down to 55. Oooof. More later - happy trading j.o. PS - Nice price action in the bonds...gotta have some. But keep a close eye.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17384)	7/2/1999 3:47:00 PM
From: Topannuity	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

I'll leave your name off my message- but you should be able recognize yourself... This is what you posted on June 15, the exact bottom day of the inets correction. << Topannuity, why should a crash in the nutz scare us? whether some of the leaders will prove to be good investments decades from now is not relevant to the recognition that this group is toast in the short to medium term. while they all have come down considerably from their highs, they are still the most expensive stocks the world has ever seen, even at current levels. what's happening now is called reality check, bound to continue for a good while yet. << Wrong, baby, wrong, big time! How can you prognosticate about movements you know so little about?