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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Rose who wrote (17389)	6/15/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Robert: LG, by what percentage is the overall market diverging from the 25-year rising trading channel at present? And why is the 25-year period significant, as opposed to 30, 45 or 8? Well, I don't have enough data to go back beyond 1970. So, those trends I can not analyze to my satisfaction. Frankly I am not aware of a trading channel longer than the one I identified. Would you please give me the parameters of the 30 and 45 year channels. And as far as an eight year channel...longer term trends "are" always more significant when they are broken than shorter term trends. To answer you question, the 25-year trading channel for the NYA-Composite represents the overall bull Market since 1974. The significance is the trend/momentum change. The break above the upper channel line signaled an exuberant extension to the momentum increase based off the Oct 98 lows. The extension of this exuberance up and above the upper channel line infers to me...the possibility of a blow off top. Look at my "weekly" chart on my chart page on the MDA thread. I have not updated since Friday evening, but you can still get the picture. A picture is worth a thousand words. If you have an understand of Technical Analysis (IE: trending channels), you should note the significance of this breakout. No slam intended. If not I will try to answer further. Oh yes...I will check out the percent rise above the line, but there really is no prior breakout to compare it to. That is why this breakout is so significant. homestead.com Hope this helps... Regards, LG