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Technology Stocks : Clarify - upside to EPS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 45bday who wrote (1022)	6/15/1999 11:07:00 AM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1062

Yes, the stock has come a long way and so have many other technology companies since the October lows. This is a natural extension of the technology transition we are seeing. Perhaps investors are realizing that the back office market is mature and there is massive opportunity in the front office market. The reason for my question is simple. You value stocks based on what is expected to happen going forward, not based on where the stock has come from. Is Clarify "expensive" because it was $6 and a fraction last fall? Is ONXS "cheap" because it was a $50 stock within the last few months? Clarify is trading at a little over 30 times 2000 earnings for a company that is the strong number 2 in the fastest growing enterprise software segment. It's no longer cheap, but i don't see it as over priced. ONXS is trading at nearly an infinite multiple after management brought the company public with misleading claims that ONXS was the "Internet" front office company. ONXS is inherently crippled by its mid market strategy and management has ruined the shareholder base by overhyping the story prematurely. Are PSFT or JDEC cheap based on where they've been? I don't think so. Is Vantive cheap based on where its been? A more complicated question. They've changed strategic directions and have executed poorly in a fast growing market. They've got customers and a product line. It can be fixed, but it took 3 full quarters of new management before Clarify stock started working, you'll need patience with Vantive. I will wait to see if there's evidence of success in place before re-buying vntv. Right now, I've been adding to my SEBL position. I'm going to wait until Larry comes out and lies about his success in front office tonight when orcl reports results to add more to the sebl position. I'm also considering adding during the early July pre-release panic season. td