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To: ben. who wrote (22353)	6/15/1999 12:37:00 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

I have a slightly different take on this. I agree that the blue chip runup is partially (only partially, since the internuts really only perked up last year) a result of gains on internuts. However, the Dow has been perking along nicely since about 1985....without the internet for a good portion of that time. What is REALLY driving the Dow? HMMM, let's think...what happened just prior to 1985 that might have had a big impact on stocks over time (particularly with compounding)? Could it be 401(k) plans? I think so. I know it sounds cliche, but this is the real engine of growth. Money is locked up for long periods in these plans, and is not relatively fluid (let alone liquid). Any downdraft is likely to be a mere pothole in a continued run up. Gains in efficiency have made long term earnings look more enticing. The population continues to hold down jobs, and good paying ones, and contributing to 401(k) plans. The daytraders keep the market liquid, but increase the volatility. I'd say that an internet selloff will have a short term impact, but it will be very short, yet punitive. Given population trends, the likelyhood is that the bull market has about 10 to 15 years left in it, barring a wholesale depression. That would, of course, change the whole dynamic, since unemployment would likely hit double digits, 401(k)s would stop being contributed to, and the gov't would likely allow individuals to draw down existing 401(k) plans (a very vicious cycle, should it occur).