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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: llwk7051@aol.com who wrote (3094)	6/16/1999 1:28:00 AM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 4467

-OT- Robert, Mr. Shobin is saying several things, two of which are quite different. He says the correction won't end until "these stocks reach absurdly low levels," and "Most will have to fall under their 200-day moving averages, then build bases for many months." Yahoo is a representative example. If the 200 day moving average is the criteria, it has been there the past few days [200 day m.a. is $128 and YHOO closed at $125]. It is doubtful if anyone would define that as an absurdly low level. The low last fall might qualify as absurdly low which would be $28. For most, the gap between the 200 day m/a and any reasonable definition of absurdly low is huge. IE, he should state the probability of one or the other. I doubt if he will be correct about "absurdly low". Many of the also-rans will go to levels far lower than today-say last Octobers, but it won't be absurdly low, it will turn out to be appropriately low. The leaders and future winners will not go to absurdly low levels, because the internet is to revolutionary and the future winners will be big winners. It is doubtful that the market will price them even to where they were last fall. Unfortunately, between todays prices and last falls lows, there is a lot of room in between. That is why I will [likely] keep my internet exposure confined to SFE, which will IMO be among those involved with the future big winners and has diversification and a solid NAV to somewhat mitigate downside. The ultimate downside on some internet stocks if long and wrong will be 100%, SFE won't be among them. Mike