SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LindyBill who wrote (2643)6/15/1999 5:54:00 PM
From: mauser96  Respond to of 54805
 
LindyBill....Once you have a CDMA standard in use, switching to another standard is costly. However switching from a QCOM phone to a Nokia inside this standard is easy. QCOM makes the larger profit if you use a QCOM phone, but it still makes money (royalties) if you use a Nokia. A vendor can alter the CDMA they use but only to the extent that it still works with other CDMA phones. Since the whole idea of CDMA is to communicate with similar machines the functional modifications are limited. QCOM may have some advantage here since they have the most experience with CDMA. Once CDMA has become a standard, I think it no longer belongs to QCOM in the sense that they can do what they want with it.To make a simile, they originally designed the highway, but don't own the road itself,. Any changes in where are how the roads are built is up to a committee, but QCOM is in the unique position of being able to erect a toll booth on the road as well as use it.
I have no way of predicting the future reliably, so I'm unsure whether all will eventually use CDMA. At best, it will probably be a slow process because of the sunk costs in present standards (If costs of switching off CDMA are high, so are costs switching to it because this means you are switching off some older standard). I'm not trying to rain on anybody's parade, just being realistic about the fact that de jure standards are designed to be acccessible to all. If cell phone growth can be accelerated, QCOM should get more than it's share because of the royalties.
To leave the realm of fact and go to speculation...IMHO, the computer of the future will fuse the cell phone and the laptop. This market is going to be very big.There is no gorilla by Gorilla Game book standards, but a huge rapidly growing market can mean juicy profits to several princes, since they won't have to compete based entirely on price for years. Since QCOM has the patents, maybe it is a sort of uber prinz. Some other participants in the field may be good investments also. I'm also looking for companies that can solve the telecom "last mile" problem with wireless.
I'm a long term investor, so my brain says don't worry about the fluctuations. My gut tells me something else when I lose enough money in a day to live on several months. Maybe if the market can just move sideways like this for a while it will be enough to take the speculation out, and and even more nasty bear can be avoided. It's a nice time to have some cash available.
Regards...