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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (17461)	6/15/1999 8:23:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim; I am of the opinion that the "tide" of the market tends to float or sink all boats. While I see some thinner traded stocks making new highs and breaking out, I also know that if a really strong down day comes to the market these often get hurt the most. ---------------- Now my market call says the market is all messed up and standing on thin legs as it is. The S&P is down over 5% from its high of 1375.98, the physical make up of the index says we can not make any new high until the internal damage is fixed. We can huff and puff but until the liquidity come back in that's about all we will do, other than bait in a few more suckers into stocks that will get the snote kicked out of them when we do the 9% plunge that is still to come. ---------------- I'm going on record we will drop to 1200 , on the S&P before we break above the 1375. The bulls can wring their hands all they want it's going to happen CPI or no cpi that's just knee jerk crap. The index itself is screwed up and the divergence must fix it self or any rally is just a trap. ---------------- There is one way out of it, but the chances of it happening are almost nil. The only way we don't go to 1200 or below is if the funds start tossing money back at the nifty fifty like crazy in order to restore the liquidity. Unless we get one hell of a big cap rally this market will do a blow down just when most people least expect it, as when the thin stocks that have offered the support since April give way it will be hell to pay. My call is conservative too, we could easily exceed the 19% we dropped last summer. In fact the internals say that if CreemSpan don't rush back in to kill the dollar this time we could drop as much as 30%. Jim