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To: MileHigh who wrote (1079)6/15/1999 10:52:00 PM
From: Dr. Id  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10934
 
Any ideas as to the sell-off in NTAP? I bought more today...hope that wasn't stupid!

JB

p.s. I am hoping that this is similar to last fall's selloff of VTSS, which took the price down to 18 on no bad news for VTSS. I picked up a bunch at 25, and today its over 63.



To: MileHigh who wrote (1079)6/16/1999 12:24:00 AM
From: chaz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 10934
 
Yes Miler, I sure did. Moore is reported to have a sequel coming this Fall, I believe....comments sure to be included.

For those here who've not read the book, Moore (9/97) laid out four Gorilla games, including stocks in each group, which he promised to track. The established gorillas, CSCO, MSFT, INTC, have all done reasonably well. Duuhhh.

The others included Netscape, purchased by AOL, no longer trackable. I don't know what happened to McAfee. Of the remaining four, (ITWO, MANU, CYLK, and SDTI) only ITWO has been positive, and it only barely so. The other three have been absolute disasters.

I have an opinion, and it's only mine, that the problem is not in the stocks, but in the games he elected to play. By "game", he means market. If you pick a strong market, there will be some strong stocks. If you pick a weak market, there will be weak stocks. His error, if I may call it that, was in identifying two markets that just didn't click beyond their niche. Once the customers in the niche bought, or failed to buy because the need allegedly met by the vendors was not actually needful, the markets collapsed, and the vendors could no longer "perform" in gorilla-like fashion.

I still feel Moore is basically correct. Find a strong market, identify the strong players, track them until one or more begin to falter, sell those and buy more of the remaining firms, continue the process until a gorilla (or king) is all that remains, then hold for the long appreciation. He blew the market selection part, and was thus led to underperforming stocks. In fairness, he would have gotten out of all these long before the disasters ruined his net worth, because if the market revenues fail to perform, he's out. Pretty obvious.

The G&K crowd on SI seems to be working under an even tighter set of rules....wait, wait, wait....until the leader is so obvious it almost smacks you in the face, then buy and hold. Our W&W portfolio is up 109% as of today (an imaginary $10,000 in each of the stocks as of the first trading day of 1999), and the G&K portfolio (full of firms that, to me, seem well aged) is up about 11%.

Sorry about the length of this, but your question seemed to beg a full answer, but perhaps not this full.