To: lorne who wrote (35424 ) 6/15/1999 10:41:00 PM From: Tomas Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116762
GOLD: Producers target China - Financial Times, Wednesday June 16 By Gillian O'Connor Mining Correspondent China is one of the gold industry's two primary targets for marketing gold jewellery. True, it buys less than a quarter of the gold India does - 192 tonnes in 1998 compared with 815 tonnes. But it does have nearly a fifth of the world's population and a strong gold-owning tradition. Potential demand could be even bigger than in India, given that the government has only just begun liberalising the market, said George Milling-Stanley of the World Gold Council at the FT Gold Conference yesterday. Ouyang Wei, editor of China Money, agreed that China had excellent long-term potential, but was less optimistic about short-term prospects. He argued that imports were still likely to rise in the short and medium term. This is partly because the regulated domestic price is likely to continue to lag behind the international price as it falls, and partly because a slowdown in the growth of domestic gold production will mean a growing gap between local supply and demand. Factors inhibiting demand growth include tough regulation and taxes, a sluggish economy and consumer reluctance to spend, and the fact that many of the people who can afford to own gold already do so. In the 10 largest cities, half the population own gold jewellery. In Guangzhou the proportion rises to 75 per cent. Competing products, such as platinum and gem-set jewellery, are also becoming popular. The rural population, with no gold-owning tradition and no money, is unlikely to become a large consumer. However, the inefficiencies of the local gold mining industry could benefit foreign producers. Although China is fairly rich in gold resources, it is short of proven reserves, partly because of wasteful mining techniques and partly because exploration has lagged production. In addition, many mines are unprofitable. Now, as central planning gives way to a market-oriented system, larger unprofitable mines are likely to be closed, while very small-scale mines could fall victim to increased regulation. As a result production is expected to grow slowly or stagnate.