Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Knight/Trimark Group, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patherzen who wrote (1679)	6/16/1999 1:43:00 AM
From: JC Reddy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10027

Copied from Yahoo. ------------------ messages.yahoo.com Ok Guys, I did some number crunching and this is what I come up with. **Since this is not an exact science please do your dd, and these numbers are a result of hypothicating secondary results and numbers. None of the results can for certain be accurate or deemed investment worthy. This is for amusement only. OK here goes>>> Q1 99 Knight share of Nasdaq Volume: 5.73 Billion shares EarningsQ1=0.68 (0.34splitadjusted) Q2 99current june 14, 1999 6.03Billion shares Q2 99***Estimated 7.0 billion shares, 12 trading days left, 6.03Billion have already been doccumented in 42 days: 20 days April99 + 22 days May99. 6.03Billion/42 days=143.57million shares/day but since april was a record month, lets go with 70% of daily trades for the remaining 12 days=100million shares/day, add 1.2billion shares to 6.03 currently doccumented till June 14, and you get 7.23 billion (I took a more conservative 7.0 Billion) The ratio I get from these figures is that Knight Trimark is making 1cent for every 84.2647 million shares they trade. I get this by taking the total quarterly volume and dividing that by reported earnings. For example in Q1 99, NITE reported a total quarterly volume of 5.73 Billion shares, with reported income of 0.68 cents, this gives us 5.73billion/68=84.2647million Now lets take our Q2 Numbers 7.0Billion since NITE earns a penny for every 84.2647 million shares traded, we can now figure out what income to expect. I get 0.835 or 83 1/2 cents or about (0.42) split adjusted. Before we move on, I would like to point out a few things in NITES favor. One, Q1 results were based on 15,75% Q2 was factored in with 18.65% as NITE recently stated that there market share had moved up. Since we aren't sure of NITE's market share until the actual results, I calculate it @ 15.75% which would result in earnings expectations of (0.35) cents. Someone mentioned that NITES opening of an office in the UK may effect earnings by a penny or two. Well lets say 0.02, I have already reserved 0.02 for NITES earnings by using 7.0 billion instead of 7.2 billion in the estimates, so that alone is worth 2.5cents, remember 84.5 million shares traded by Knight results in a penny of earnings. So worst case scenario is Knight makes 0.35, and that says that they lost market share, had a slow quarter (not really), and this is as ugly as it looks. The rosy and perfect picture with the 7.2 billion shares would make earnings about (0.44)/share. I predict, that we fall closer to my original prediction of (.42)/share, fully split adjusted, non-split-adjusted = (0.84). Good Luck All