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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1786)	6/16/1999 11:24:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Respond to of 3536

The Fed Fund Futures Contract is still implying 100% hike certainty.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1786)	6/16/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

I will say they hike 1/4 point. (Secretly thinking they should not, but that is irrelevant). Now, I won't give you the long answer, as some may think of winds <g> ___________ I do have a question..... Does the Fed have exclusive access to information that private think tanks/research institutes/private corporations could not access and come up with similar assessments as to CPI measurements, or similar ? Or.... The final decision is so heavily dependant upon "personal opinions" of the FOMC members that may not consider drastic differences between what the "old world was" and the "new global economy" is... (i.e. The Internet effect). Curious minds want to know... you know...

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1786)	6/16/1999 11:52:00 AM
From: TAPDOG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry: I think there is little doubt that the Fed will raise 1/4 point. More than a point and they would be under criticism that they are raising with no evidence of inflation. If they don't raise 1/4 point then the stock market and real estate market will soar and the wealth effect will becomes greater and I think Greenspan wants to avoid an even bigger bubble. However, I don't think Greenspan would ever publicly admit that he's trying to keep the stock market from going too high. That would be un-American. He will cite the labor market as well as other data to show the threat of inflation in the future. Personally, I was a little surprised by the friendly CPI and I immediately covered my shorts. Everything I look at, including anecdotal evidence, points to an economy that's humming along pretty fast.

To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1786)	6/16/1999 3:25:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Henry, The Beige Book was kind of hawkish so I still think they will raise rates. Second, I think that for a large portion of the middle to late 90s the combination of domestic savings and foreign inflows represented a fairly high percentage of the credit expansion in the non-financial sector. This is why we could grow fast without inflation. We were using hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign savings via the current account deficit and other dollar demand. However, personal savings are now negative and there is some evidence that foreign inflows have slowed down a bit. Yet in 1998 credit exploded. So most of the credit creation is coming from increases in money supply and a lot of that is being directed into stocks (margin is exploding) and real estate (prices are rising in many areas at a rapid clip). It's just a matter of time now until is spills over or causes some other problem. I think "Al" knows that too. If he's responsible (and I question that) he will raise rates. Wayne