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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (61932)	6/16/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1573365

<Chuck - re: Most forecasts call for about 20% CAGR in x86 microprocessor market. So, for the next year or so, if Intel can hold their ASPs, it will in effect remain 0% growth company even if AMD sees 20% growth in market share. Things could be worse or better depending on Intel's pricing and AMD's execution.> A company with 0% growth and no dividends does not deserve a P/E of 30+. Even a hint at slow or no growth will send Intel's P/E into 15- territory. Which by the way is close to the historic average for INTC. Kap.

To: Charles R who wrote (61932)	6/16/1999 2:19:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573365

<Most forecasts call for about 20% CAGR in x86 microprocessor market. So, for the next year or so, if Intel can hold their ASPs, it will in effect remain 0% growth company even if AMD sees 20% growth in market share.> Chuck, recheck your math. Right now AMD has about 18% of the entire x86 market. If the x86 market grows by 20%, and Intel has 0% growth, that means AMD themselves will grow by over 100%. But if AMD grows by only 20%, Intel will also grow by 20%, and thus the entire market will grow by 20%. Tenchusatsu

To: Charles R who wrote (61932)	6/16/1999 4:16:00 PM
From: Gopher Broke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573365

But Intel have already made their major screw up by not holding on to their lead in the processor speed race. This was expected of them and they have failed. Now Intel just have to hope that AMD screw up as well. Not a pleasant position to be in. If AMD can execute the K7 ramp-up, then it seems inevitable that Intel will lose a substantial amount of high-end sales. Do you really think that Intel can survive a substantial drop in profits, whatever their current bellweather status?