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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (5942)	6/16/1999 4:49:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 15132

I2: Re: "I don't know that we can limit the reasons for Brinker's "bear scenario" to inflation expectations." Yes, you are correct but my point was that the proximate cause ("whole Brinker bear scenario") was based on inflationary expectations and rising interest rates. Why? Bear markets typically have their roots in inflation and inflationary expectations (as well as a recession). That is the game we have been playing for the past month ever since the April CPI. That concern was totally neutralized today for now. Say goodbye to it for now. Say hello to a huge relief rally. Now let's watch Greenspan work his magic tomorrow and talk this market down. Let's see if new doubts should take root and old doubts should find new life again. I am not going to extrapolate record highs in the averages from today's performance. I am going to wait and watch. I am going to watch the Green master weave his web tomorrow. It does not matter what the market thinks about inflation; it only matters what the Green man thinks. If he is in a preemptive mode (recall this discussion?) which is certainly justifiable, he will send the message. Now if we get a blow off top, then I will revisit my thinking. Re: "There must be more involved than that. How about the other four "root causes of a bear market?" Yes, but without inflation or inflationary expectations and the accompanying rising interest rates it becomes much harder to make a case for a bear (over 20% off the top and lasting for 6 to 18 months). Have we ever had a valuation bear market alone? No, I don't think so. Have we had a bear market because of too much positive sentiment. Nope. I think the case for a correction is certainly present, but damn, we just had one, minor as it was, and we do not get them back to back. Absent a blow off top, I think we can at least say that we have pushed any bear back to a later time. Re: "Do all five root causes need to be present for his model to issue a sell signal?" I don't know what the Brink's model does and how it does it. Why do you think justabid.com is trying to buy out bobbrinker.com <g>? But I do know that inflation and recession have been the primary causes of bear markets and neither exists now. Let's see if the Green man works on inflationary expectations or jawbones against unsustainable growth.