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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17588)	6/16/1999 3:13:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>bears according to investors intelligence have now fallen to slightly over 26%<<< that's a very good argument for a limitation to the upside of this rally, however i'm too nervous to sit and watch all this long action, when the GIN hit's 479 - i'm out. the xci chart has a lot of similarities to the ending move of the ndx chart from july thru october 97, a long consolidation phase and a bull trap final marginal high.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17588)	6/17/1999 12:52:00 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz , you indicated that you were waiting for the reaction to the CPI numbers to see if the downtrend could still be pronounced in force. What kind of percentage or raw numbers were you looking for in the DOW and the SPX in reaction to the CPI and do yesterday's numbers still fall within the "bearish bias" or is it too early to tell? Thank you for your input on this. I follow mostly the N225 from here and despite a good showing yesterday in NY, we have barely punched through the resistence at 17,300 . I would tend to use a 3% figure, meaning that if prices penetrated the 17300 by 3% (up to 17800 on closing basis) a strong uptrend would be confirmed and I believe we might then go much higher. In the present state of affairs, the nikkei is not showing any strength and I would look for the following two factors as danger signs for the latest N225's advance: 1- failure to piggy back on US stock gains if the DOW breaks new highs 2- renewed intervention from the BOJ to keep forex down (Yen/USD) My most likely scenario on the N225 is now a retracement to the 16,800 area (fibonacci 38% retracement from advance 16,000 to 17,300) until further US indices leadership (up or down) is shown. Yours Sincerely, Stephan Gilbert

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (17588)	6/17/1999 7:30:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz: I think the case for a correction in the market can survive about two more up-days. I cannot make a case for a strong move up. Going back to last Friday at 3:40 PM Eastern. The market was heading into the weekend with a 200-point plus decline in the INDU. However, before it got to -200 plus, the money moved into the market and stifled the decline. That would have been about 400 to 500 in the three days prior to the weekend. Too noticeable to allow that to happen. Again, this Monday during the first hour of trading the INDU was ready to head into the tank. However, that was stopped. These actions were clear. Yesterday, we had the typical extraordinary moneyflow movements that can be associated with some expiration weeks. It seems to me that we have seen the workings of moneyed maestros. I was unimpressed by yesterday's move. At this point, I cannot buy into a move up. Like you said, there has not been any commitment to a correction yet. Until the money arrives in force, I feel we must decline or just flop around. I sure hate to see us flop around.