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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steeny who wrote (22625)	6/16/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny, I see your points. Here are my thoughts: 1) I am 60-40 on a raise. The hawks want their 25 back. Don't really feel like going into detail. I think you know. I have no problem with 1/4 point increase. It is already factored in. But, if the world is still on the incubator and the purpose of Oct 98 interest rate decreases was to save the world, with the world recovery just having hatched, how will the Fed justify now cutting off it's milk? Ergo, Fed may not cut rates. 2. I disagree strongly about AOL Europe. It is by far the weakest part of AOL. They are not leaders in Europe and they have been bumbling over there from the get-go(just the name AOL reeks of a lack of European understanding). Merrill warned about this last week. I am not worried about Europe. I just came back. PCs and the net are still RARE in Europe. The web market in Europe is still too small to be significant. There is no money in Europe. Furthermore if AOL gives out a free ISP and go for content, the free ISPs in Europe will be dead because they don't have the advertising muscle of AOL. AOL is a good buy if you think the high PE dump is over. It's not a question of whether AOL is solid or not. It is a question of whether the mkt can tolerate AOL this far ahead of itself. I am not convincd the mkt can tolerate these PEs for an industry that is growing at about double the rate of MSFT, yet 5x the PE. I do think the high PE dump is over because interest rate fears are overblown. Let me state that Merrill is one of the few who think that there is no inflation. At most they see .25% point increase. Ultimately we are going back to Paul Allen's idea that the web is all about content. As 17+ mill AOL customers demonstrate, AOL has the content/e-commerce, whatever, AOL anywhere. Let us also not forget that ATT with cable will not be able to be everywhere.With AOL instead if a customer leaves his home he can still be in touch with his home site with all th evarious connections that AOL is planning( copper, wireless, and cable. ( remember, we have companies like Qwest, Global Crossings who have an excess of cable and are now trying to buy the bells because the bells have the customers because copper telephony is more reliable than cable, TA

To: Steeny who wrote (22625)	6/16/1999 3:17:00 PM
From: David Petty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny (SemiOT)- Do you think that Greenspan spends much time today revising his comments for Congress tomorrow? or was he maybe never going to give/have to give the speech/comments that the pundits thought. He ought to put a muzzle on some of his board members/governors... especially the one that pretty much quaranteed that todays CPI would add credibility to the high .7 April figure (I do not remember which member, but one of the ones that spoke stridently last week). I am not saying I disagree in regards to latent inflation... just that there is too much talking by people who know no more than I do, but have a title that causes some people to automatically treat as credible. David II

To: Steeny who wrote (22625)	6/16/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: T L Comiskey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

106 1/4 ask...

To: Steeny who wrote (22625)	6/16/1999 7:27:00 PM
From: tang	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny, I like your writing but I have to ask you a question in public: You started appeared in this chat room around April this year, I am kind like your writing because you use professional statistics to support your point of view. But for more than 2 months now, you seems only cast doubt into AOL's performance, you always stated your 'good points' with multi-IFs, you stretched your 'bad points' with a punch, I must ask you once: (1) Do you ever own AOL? (2) Are you shorting AOL? or are you looking for opportunity to short AOL? (3) I notice that you are a young man, and you work in a brokerage house, are you just writing because you need experience for stock analyses and need large audience from AOL chat room so you may forward your career? (4) Are you a stock analyst? No matter what your answers are, you are welcome to comment here because even though your tune is quite depressed on AOL but they are quality opinions nonetheless. Sorry for the unfriendly questions but I am dying to know ...