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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ecommerceman who wrote (7461)	6/16/1999 4:05:00 PM
From: Stephen L	Respond to of 11417

I still believe the company has great prospect and a creative management team. Gilder is a board member, but I suspect that has a bit to do with where he lives. He should be a great sounding board for how WAVX products and services can position themselve not only in e commerse but more importantly in the broadband commerse channels. A hardware commerce solution will be great when OEMs start distributing dirt cheap PDAs or Net Boxes to consumers with then intent of recovering costs through monthly connect charges and low transaction fees. By pushing the rent-to-own concept I think they will be able to reduce the sticker shock of "big-ticket" digital products (games, software apps etc) to moderate income users. You will only pay for that which you have been and want to continue to use. This will help get over the net-phobia of paying for Digital content and should help nurture an on-line commerce economy somewhere between the old shareware (I actually did send checks when I used that stuff) and the current software/digital product distribution system. I still wish they had a more prominant software only solution (there are all sorts of clever encrytion toys out there include some cute quantum computing based algorythms that would drive the NSC crazy). Hardware is great but too fixed.

To: ecommerceman who wrote (7461)	6/17/1999 1:52:00 AM
From: Trippi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11417

EMAN -- I believe that OEM deployment is farther off than many at RB and SI think. I at one time subscribed to a single OEM acting as a catalyst which would then create movement by other OEM's. I no longer subscribe to this notion -- I believe news in the past few days about a consortium of companies on the software/server side -- seeking to set ecommerce standards -- is a sign of how a truely ubquitous solution will emerge -- its seems to me that an equally powerful group of companies has to form around a client side/hardware standard and the only company with the right tech sitting at the table would be WAVX. Given the recent announcement of the group led by Visa -- I do not see how a client side group could be far off -- I am hoping weeks but certainly no longer than a few months. I feel strongly that the OEM's will come on board but I do not believe one is imminent. Trippi

To: ecommerceman who wrote (7461)	6/17/1999 10:01:00 PM
From: Oliver Hahn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Re: it's gonna be a slog Here is a recent estimate of net based sales of music looking forward to the year 2004: news.com (I have seen some similar estimates, but i no longer have the links, so I take this as representative.) The prediction is $4 billion in music sales (looks like their assumption is roughly doubling of sales every year from the actual sales of $47 million in 1997) for music downloaded from the net. Let's add some assumptions: 1) Wavx has a successful deployment and captures 25% of all these sales. This is picking a number out of a hat, but it's hard to believe that there won't be _any_ competing technology. 2) Wavx gets 10% of sales as commission. I take this as a generous upgrade of the kinds of rates that VISA gets on credit card sales. If the commission is much higher, I would then assume the competition would really be knocking on the door. With these assumptions, we could expect $100 million in revenue by the year 2004 from the music side of the business. Let's put this into some share terms. On 3/31 there were 32 million shares outstanding, 10 million in options and warrants, then add 2.5 million for the purchase of N*able, then sum up and call it conservatively to have reached 50 million shares by 2004 due to recapitalization and employee awards, etc. [later edit: By the way, this is effectively what is meant by a $60 million "hole" due to paid in capital--share dilution] That's $2 per share of revenue, before any expenses, from music by 2004. Of course, much more goes into the company, such as software and videos, maybe that's ten times the size of the music part, but let's put up some numbers. And of course the assumptions can be debated. However, these estimates aren't off the map, and these payoffs are many years in the future. It may explain the modest enthusiasm for the stock. Any comments? Oliver