To: t2 who wrote (27196 ) 6/28/1999 10:49:00 PM From: EPS Respond to of 42771
news? ============== But in the broader market, where Microsoft makes its money, Office 2000 sales are going to ramp up, I believe, much more slowly than Microsoft says they will. And Maffei's familiar prediction of flattening or even -- gasp!-- temporarily sagging revenue growth will come true. I don't want to be anywhere around Microsoft's stock when that happens. What about the contribution from Windows 2000 (NT 5.0)? Well, the release date for the final version of the most-delayed product in Microsoft's history is still uncertain; most observers now peg its arrival at October to November of this year. (Be wary of such forecasts, no matter the source: Microsoft has repeatedly changed its release dates on this product, and with limited corporate interest in deploying Windows 2000 while Y2K worries remain, Microsoft might well keep the product in house for another quarter or two, to fine-tune the code.) Meanwhile, Windows 2000 has been fragmented into at least four separate products: Professional, for corporate desktop use, plus Server, Advanced Server and Data Server. All that division and redivision and reworking of the underlying NT 5.0 code base has made Windows 2000 stability a worry for some corporate managers. But far more say that though they're interested in the possibility of moving their servers to Windows 2000, they aren't likely to act anytime soon. Too many choices; too much uncertainty; too much pain. Linux gets a lot of press and a fair amount of corporate attention, too -- though few corporate network managers are anywhere near ready to consider actually adopting Linux yet. The hemorrhaging of Novell (NOVL:Nasdaq) Netware customers to NT has largely been stanched, thanks to strong leadership from Novell CEO Eric Schmidt and a rationalization of the Netware line. And while Windows NT 4.0customers have talked for years about their eagerness to move on to the next version, most have by now, with much work, much frustration and a series of minifix Service Packs from Microsoft, decided they can live with what they have. In sum, I don't think we're going to see big early volume for Microsoft in Windows 2000 licenses, either. Not just not this year, but not next year, either. Again, this slow start for Windows 2000 won't be mainly because of Y2K issues, which will in a sense be a self-resolving issue, but because the pain and problems of a companywide operating system upgrade are so great that network managers think twice -- then again and again and again -- about putting themselves, their companies and their job security through that wringer. As with Office 2000, Windows 2000 will unquestionably become an important corporate standard, and will eventually displace almost entirely Windows NT 4.0. Just not very quickly. All that does not augur well for a continued climb in revenue at Mister Softee, nor for a steady rise in the share price. Certainly Microsoft has withstood very well the buffeting of the past three quarters in a Washington courtroom, but that court's final decision, and the odds the bookies will lay on the success or failure of Microsoft's appeal, will eventually take their toll on the share price, as well. Microsoft could do an Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) here, settling with the Justice Department, but there just doesn't seem any midground on which the two could agree; a settlement would be a very good thing but doesn't seem likely. So, Microsoft bull though I've been, I think there are rough seas ahead for Big Redmond over the next few quarters. Microsoft will undoubtedly remain one of the great growth and profit engines of the U.S. economy, long term -- but if you're a Microsoft investor, it might be smart to think about taking a breather for a while ... while Microsoft profits do the same. Jim Seymour is president of Seymour Group, an information-strategies consulting firm working with corporatethestreet.com