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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Judy who wrote (21717)	6/16/1999 6:08:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 42787

Judy: 1) On the 20% investment in Iridium. MOT will have to write the investment down to fair market value. It would have been doing this in the first quarter as well and I don't know what the 1st qtr carrying value was but its probably an 80% writeoff. 2) On the debt guarantee. This is one with the auditors. If MOT can convince their auditors that the debt is still good and they won't have to pay any amount under the guarantee they won't have to establish a contingency reserve. Since the debt is trading @ 60 cents to the $$ this will be difficult for MOT to do but auditors can be swayed with good arguements and legal opinions. 3) On any assets related to supporting Iridium it would make investor financial sense to do the write down at the same time the above two charges hit. Sometimes a company delays hits due to surplus (insurance and banking to name two) or other financial reasons but I don't see that often in strong manufacturing companies. The issue and decision on the last two will be Galvins call. It is probably a political issue with the board and a business issue on when / if they take the write off it would decrease the Iridium value even more. While its been tough to market the service imagine how much tougher to market and survive if MOT takes the writeoff. So item 1 now and 2&3 is open to interpretation of FAS 5 on loss contingency. OTOT - We'll I owe you chocalates at least for ASML (or my wife, the investments in her account) as well as my slow education. No TER (congrats on the breakout). The brick hit but when I took some profits last week I just keep it in cash. With ASML moving CYMI won't be far behind. It looks like someone is keeping a lid on CYMI, PRIA and SFAM. I have CYMI and with the semi sector will purchase some PRIA and SFAM soon. I think the triple witch is coming into play on these shares. Tim