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Technology Stocks : CheckFree Holdings Corp. (CKFR), the next Dell, Intel? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rob C. who wrote (6433)	6/16/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: tktom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

Benny, with 50 of the top 100 billers, and another 50 expected to be signed up by June 2000, what sales/earnings generation WITH BILL PRESENTMENT ONLY (E-Bill) can be expected by June 2000? Seems to me that with Pete S. signaling to expect less than the $.38 earnings forcast, that the adoption rate for E-Bill might not that great even by June 2000. At $.30 per pop to Checkfree, with all the potential eyeballs from all the banks and all the portals, that this would be a huge adder to the bottom line..I remember a few quarters back, that CKFR was not adding to the bottom line the revenue or earnings from E-Bill..Could this still be the case? I haven't added up all the eyeballs yet for Yahoo, Excite, AOL, Lycos, etal, but even at a 5% penetration rate, this is a big number. Are they counting just bill payment?? Rainy in Florida..(finally) TK

To: Rob C. who wrote (6433)	6/16/1999 8:56:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 20297

When we have 10,000,000 customers, what will CKFR be earning? ($4 * 10M * 12) + (10M * 7 * 0.30 * 12) = $732M in ecommerce top line with - what do you all think is a reasonable LT net margin?

To: Rob C. who wrote (6433)	6/16/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: rocki	Respond to of 20297

>>I don't pay any right now. If you have enough money in your account, the fees are waived... Exactly, why should we pay fees! Personally, I pay bills thru 2 banks without fees, also no fees for ATM and no fees when using debit card. The banks save on tellers payroll and billers save on bill presentment + postage. Then they want to charge me too???

To: Rob C. who wrote (6433)	6/16/1999 10:46:00 PM
From: Erik T	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20297

We have all been disappointed time and again by this company. I think the problem is our expectations are just too high. This technology will take time to reach mass acceptance. When we have 10,000,000 customers, what will CKFR be earning? I would say that by the end of 2001 this would be a lay-up. I really do not think this is a lay-up. This is optomistic, and doable, but not a lay-up. The portals are going to have a field day marketing this for us. I just hope that we get to have a "powered by Checkfree" somewhere in there. PK did not at any time suggest that the portals would market this service aggressively. Some may choose to do so. Also remember, the strategy has always been to let the bank (and now I suppose the portal) brand their own bill pay. This is helpful because people trust whatever agent they choose to do their bill pay. It does not help hype the price of our stock, however. But the portals/banks do not care about hyping our stock. They want customers who will stay at their sites, and think they (the bank/portal) is really providing them a valuable service. CKFR benefits by reaping a lot of money, but do not expect anything more. At $.30 per pop to Checkfree, with all the potential eyeballs from all the banks and all the portals, that this would be a huge adder to the bottom line. haven't added up all the eyeballs yet for Yahoo, Excite, AOL, Lycos, etal, but even at a 5% penetration rate, this is a big number. Are they counting just bill payment?? It is very possible that many will not use CKFR for bill presentment. CKFR WILL consolidate, but many, many billers will use a third party to generate the bill presentment, often through the billers own sites. I would not expect to derive too much money from presentment for many years. CKFR even mentions this in their SEC filings. Charlie Smith suggests this will be a bigger part of their business than I believe. And if CKFR gets 5% penetration over the next couple years, I think they will have done extraordinarily well. ($4 10M * 12) + (10M * 7 * 0.30 * 12) = $732M in ecommerce top line with - what do you all think is a reasonable LT net margin?* I think it very doubtful CKFR will see much of the (10M * 7 * .30 *12) Also, don't forget about the 39% corporate tax rate when looking for net. I believe we all need to come back to earth with our expectations for this company. Remember, we were expecting to earn $ 0.32/share for the fiscal year ending in two weeks. Not only are we nowhere near that, next year expect a big loss. Good times are ahead, but this will require great patience. Many stocks will soar faster and higher than CKFR, just don't know which ones. This one will do very well I suspect, but it will take time. Erik (IMHO)