To: John Madarasz who wrote (10319 ) 6/16/1999 11:52:00 PM From: Lockeon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
John, Thank You for that most apropos link....*grin*... Yes, I am quite aware of MOST of these theories, and quite aware that MOST of them are junk...hehhehheh... However, there is something to be said about market sentiment, which actually was my point (and Mark's point, if I am not mistaken). You see TA essentially, is a way to measure market sentiment as it was and to project what it will be tomorrow, or a few days in advance, etc. These trends can be easily suborned by a few critical events, such as the one that we saw today. Undoubtedly, this is neither a complete nor an accurate view of what the future will hold, but I doubt that anyone can suggest that the market sentiment has not turned today from being unalterably bearish to somewhat bullish even if the Fed. raises interest rates. Do I pretend to be able to guage what the market reaction will be tomorrow? Certainly not. But certain events are amenable to some minor forward prediction, based on which it is relatively easier to predict what the outcome SHOULD be - not necessarily what it WILL be. It is a matter of faith as usual....*grin*... As an example, I thought that the PPI would come in at or above expectations based on the NAPM report (it did), while the CPI would come in inline or below predictions (it did). Based on these, I laid my bets. I may have gotten lucky this time - that is entirely possible - but the results that occured due to these predictions enabled me to survive the downdrafts and take advantage of the updrafts that occured. Will they remain so in the future - most assuredly not, but there MAY be something here that I can take advantage of - and I need all the advantage that I can get, especially since I have some limited margin.... Obviously, there is no surefire way, else we would all be rich. I was merely mentioning something that helped me a bit.... LTB&H is all well and good, but if one does not have enough money to begin with, risks need to be taken, and those risks, I feel, are somewhat diminished if one takes into account the sentiment surrounding ones positions... Regards... Have an EXCELLENT day...