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Biotech / Medical : ICOS Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edscharp who wrote (724)	6/17/1999 2:14:00 PM
From: Lel H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1139

Greetings, Edward. I believe I have said in the recent past that I thought that ICOS seemed to be getting ahead of itself. But I also admit to a really lousy track record of predicting price movement. The reason why I said that ICOS could drift into the 20s is that I don't expect any significant positive news to be forthcoming. The multi-dose MS trial should be completed soon, but if the single-dose study is any predictor, I doubt that any benefit would be detected. And if there were a positive outcome, I wonder how much ICOS would be willing to pursue a large phase III trial, and how willing and able they would be to match LeukArrest against Avonex or Betaseron. If LeukArrest can't do any better than these established treatments, then why would physicians and patients switch? In my mind, I have already dismissed this indication. As for stroke, well, about a year ago I had the pleasure of conducting a grand rounds presentation about neuroprotection in stroke, and rattled off a long laundry list of compounds that showed promise in the lab and in phase II trials, only to fail in phase III trials. This could be tough for ICOS as well. Having said that, I guess we should remember that in the absence of news, ICOS drifted up from the mid-20s to the mid-40s. The net effect of the LeukArrest news was to knock it down to the mid-30s, still about a 25% rise from the YTD low. Had ICOS wallowed in the 20s until a few days ago, we'd be looking at a $15 stock right now. I'll count my blessings, I guess. Regards, Lel