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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Metcalf who wrote (724)	6/17/1999 9:18:00 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4974

<Let me put out a crude valuation concept> Wow, very interesting... thank you! Speaking of a 'crude' concept, how about this: Since it takes 7 years [corrections please?] to get research into product, AND 70% [wow is this a guess] blow up along the way, I suggest that your $BTK index should really have an upward sloping "fair value" line as losers are winnowed out and new product enters the pipeline. In fact could it be argued that fair value of $BTK may increase 30%-40% per annum using CONSTANT hit rates on new product [this should be increasing dramatically right?] and constant future sales numbers [in a growing industry]. HHhhmmm, do you think I'm bullish enough? DAK DAK