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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (16192)	6/17/1999 2:00:00 AM
From: Tae Spam Kim	Respond to of 56535

Trader J's Market Thoughts: Where To From Here? - 6/16/99 - JH With the edge taken off of the market due to the unchanged CPI numbers, money flowed back into the battered tech stocks, and especially the Internets. Any 4+% move on the Nasdaq should go a long way in proving that there is an insatiable appetite for tech stocks, even in the midst of sharp declines. But with many of the majors shedding 50% off of their recent highs, we have to ask ourselves now, "Where to from here"? The market is still reacting to the fear of inflation and the eventual rise in rates. But it is not true inflation that traders fear here, it is the four letter word …"hike". The market, and the economy have been in a period of stellar performance. Even during bouts of rest, the markets have a difficult time selling off for any length of time, selling is always seen as a buying opportunity during periods of weakness. The psychological effects of a rate hike is enough to get traders and investors alike to question positions with lofty valuations. And this fear, and eventual sell-off, feeds upon itself, until some level of confidence is restored; market psychology is a delicate act of balance. The tame CPI numbers will not, in my opinion, keep the Fed from tightening at 25 basis points to keep any inflation in check. The hike has already been factored into the market, and traders have started to nibble again. I welcome the rate increase as I am more concerned about an over-heating economy in the long run. This market and economic climate is simply too strong for an impending 25-50 basis point hike, especially now after the recent weakness. Today was NOT a break-out for the vast majority of tech stocks. We simply returned to some level of parity from an over sold period. If you examine many of the charts of your favorite tech stocks, you will see that they are still trading in their channels, and well off their highs. Today was a great opportunity to regain some level of confidence, and to begin slowly taking positions in your favorite issues. But I am not convinced that we are going to see the break-out that everyone is expecting. Many were burned by the recent decline, and many have changed their discipline. The valuation concerns for many of the Inets has never been exposed as much as it is now. I do not believe the bubble has burst, nor do I believe that it is about to, but I do believe we are going to begin seeing severe scrutiny as to which Inets traders are willing to gamble with. I myself have certainly changed my discipline to, once again, take advantage of what the market is offering. Until we get clear direction, and final confirmation from the FOMC meeting at the end of June, I would keep a majority of positions to intraday only, and 50% of your cash on the sidelines to take advantage of the emotional swings that this market is now prone to. This is the perfect time to take advantage of the partial position strategy that I spoke of in my last article. Be careful out there, and as always, trade well. - Jeff Haverlack This excellent market update is from tigerinvestor.com. Who is this Trader J guy anyway? :)

To: American Spirit who wrote (16192)	6/17/1999 2:06:00 AM
From: Trader J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 56535

AS: ORCL - I hear ya, I just didn't expect it to move so quickly. I expected to see 29 and had 3000 shares at 22 and sold at 24 and change a couple weeks back. I loved it in the low 20s, but just didn't have the patience to hold it. CPQ is much the same, bad news can't hurt it much....that is why I nearly bought it yesterday...but there were just too many other nets about to blow up. Let the top come off ORCL and it will be a good play again. Tj