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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert K. who wrote (10496)	6/17/1999 10:08:00 AM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Robert, calling does no good. XOMA is not, repeat NOT, providing accrual data in a meaningful way and has not been for about a month. While I do not believe leaks in the Meningo trial data have occurred nor that leaks of the trauma trial data have either, I do believe that the conclusion of any trial at any company is itself a fact that could leak. Think about it. All the involved staff at a hospital know, some trauma patients know they no longer can be enrolled in a specific trial and a small number of those can figure out what it might mean. Now if it's early conclusion, a bit more is learned. Normally one would not know if the trial was terminated early for safety but in this case odds would be against that. Do I know if the Trauma trial has concluded? No. All I want is continued release of the accruals on a regular basis. I have wasted two sheets of graph paper and this is not tolerable. <g>

To: Robert K. who wrote (10496)	6/17/1999 11:19:00 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

From XOMA old FAQ: " Why is the trial so large? How long will it take to enroll patients? updated 3/5/98. To be conservative, we assumed a slightly less favorable benefit to treated patients than we saw in Phase II, and have therefore powered the study to 90% certainty to maximize our chances of demonstrating efficacy. We expect the trial to take about 2 years in 30-40 study centers. " <<<<<<<we assumed a slightly less favorable benefit to treated patients >>>>>>>> O.K. so they designed the trial to 90% certainty even with less benefit than shown in P II. Where are we if the same benefit is shown?? Cacaito with 900 patients and the same benefit as in P II is 90% certainty reached???? Any doctors with trauma patients that have ben told enrollments not being accepted please post. Not saying the trial is over. Just trying to determine if it could be. No, just trying to determine if it is. However, I se no motive for XOMA to conceal the conclusion of this trial. No upside from not telling everyone at once. But remember we do not know for certain when the Meningo trial ended. We know the end was announced on 14 May. The end had to come before as one must wind down such an important trial at the centers.