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To: diana g who wrote (46567)	6/17/1999 11:53:00 AM
From: Richard D	Respond to of 95453

Diana, I think your analysis is very insightful. I think Venezuela, more so than any other other OPEC country, is responsible to an electorate who is extremely dependent on the oil industry. I believe the recent administration wasn't elected on the platform of cutbacks, though they knew it would come after the election. I believe they are under constant political pressure to expand production. This political pressure is short sighted, while their present economic policy is more on target. They have to play to this political pressure with lip service (like yesterday). Hopefully they don't succumb to this pressure. Right now I'm watching the Greenspan hearings. They're doing the same thing to him, that the Chavez govt. experiences. Greenspan has his eye on the ball 5-20 years out, while the congressmen are always pushing for a quick pump up in the economy. To this day, George Bush senior believes he lost the election due to Greenspan's conservative monetary policy. He's probably right, but so was Greenspan's strategy in hindsight. Electorates in general, have always been a bit short sighted, though I think people are coming around to Greenspan's patience, and perhaps Chavez's. Regards, Richard P.S. Shust has more of a handle on the Venezuelan story, than we. Maybe he'll chirp in.

To: diana g who wrote (46567)	6/17/1999 2:27:00 PM
From: RIK	Respond to of 95453

Hi diana (a.k.a. one smart cookie) IMO the half-wits are the guys that were predicting $5 oil ; OPEC still rules the oil world ...to the benefit of the world , OPEC have never learned how to manage their resources properly. Greed and infighting within OPEC will always be an important factor in the price of oil. I believe they are on the right track now and believe they will stay the course for the balance of the year. Hopefully inventories are drawn down , Asian demand is stimulated and North America experiences a normal winter. Take care.

To: diana g who wrote (46567)	6/17/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: diana g	Respond to of 95453

Crude Oil Futures Rally at the Closing Bell on July Options Expiration quote.bloomberg.com Thu, 17 Jun 1999, 10:52pm EDT Crude Oil Rallies at Closing Bell on July Options Expiration New York, June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than 1 percent, rallying at the closing bell, as traders bought futures contracts to cover bad bets on July options that expired at the end of the day. Traders focused on call options that gave holders the right to buy a July crude futures contract at $18.00 a barrel. Sellers of the options, who were speculating that futures would stay below that price, had to buy contracts to cover their positions and avoid steeper losses on the options when crude rallied above $18 in late-day trading. ''The people who sold those calls had better have some mustard to eat with those futures,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. July crude oil rose 25 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $18.19 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, The contract rose 17 cents in the last 15 minutes of trading. Prices were little changed for most of the day as traders awaited signs of stronger gasoline demand during the peak driving season. The end-of-day buying exaggerated the rally, traders said. More than 10,000 July call option contracts were outstanding at the start of trading and others were written during the day, traders said. Crude oil call options allows the holders to buy a 1,000 barrel crude oil futures contract -- valued at $18,190 today -- for $18,000. Sellers must make good on the option if prices go against them. The options sold for about 10 cents a barrel this morning, meaning that a close above $18.10 would make it profitable to exercise the option, according to Victor Yu, an analyst at Refco Inc. in New York. An option seller who bought crude futures at the $18.19 closing prices would lose $190 a contract when reselling it at the $18 option price. The sentiment at the opening was that the market was going to fall from yesterday's close of $17.94 a barrel. That induced some companies to sell more of the $18 options, traders said. ''Some people thought they could get a free 10 cents out of the market,'' said Yu. ''They thought we'd have more of a decline, but they had to pay up in the end.'' In London, August Brent crude oil rose 29 cents, or 1.8 percent, to $16.76 a barrel, on the International Petroleum Exchange. Gasoline for July delivery rose 0.80 cent, or 1.5 percent, to 53.16 cents a gallon. Heating oil for July delivery rose 1.07 cents, or 2.4 percent, to 45.38 cents a gallon.