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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (62651)	6/17/1999 2:44:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

I'll take that bet and go one further. There won't even BE a down ride to contain.

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (62651)	6/17/1999 5:57:00 PM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 132070

"...investors in stocks can expect little more than a trickle of cash returns." This (perhaps somewhat misquoted) is the conclusion of the current cover page essay of "Monetary Trends," the monthly publication of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank. I cannot recall their ever commenting on the stock market before in this publication. I got mine in the mail, but the document is available in PDF (Acrobat) format: stls.frb.org The implication of this is that stocks are overvalued by anywhere from 100% to 200%, though the author is cautious enough not to put it that way. I think John Templeton was being cautious in predicting a 4500-point decline on the Dow. If he had said what he really thought (I suspect), it would have sounded so alarmist that it would have discredited him. When he predicted a 3000-point Dow, up from 850 or so, in the early 1980s, he seemed impossibly optimistic to many--but it's easier to forgive optimism than pessimism. Since I have no reputation to lose, I would say that an overshoot on the downside is at least as easy as an overshoot on the upside, and that I would not be astonished to see a Dow of 3500. I would not wait for such a catastrophe to start putting a lot on money into the market, and I certainly am not saying it WILL go that low--just that it would not surprise me if it did.