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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1401)	6/17/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Bill, I'd suppose that there is a risk of them running out of cash eventually. A look at the latest 10K and 10Q makes it pretty clear that the rights offering and asset sales have been key elements of keeping the company going. Eventually, they'll run out of stuff to sell. But I see nothing that would precipitate a sudden drop. Probably better shorts out there. BTW, good call on a temporary bottom in MCHM. Wish I had listened. Amazing how they always have some sort of announcement when the stock is down 40%... mg

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (1401)	6/17/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Sid Turtlman	Respond to of 10293

I don't know of any particular catalyst that would make the stock go down, but I can think of some possibilities. The thing to keep in mind is that it is not hard to make a decent PEM fuel cell. Any chemistry professor with a few bucks in his pocket can make one. Most of the bigger PEM fc developers, such as Ballard and UTX, have focused on bigger sizes, typically 250 kW, because individual home size makes so little economic sense. But anyone who can make a 250 kW fc can certainly make a 7 kW one, and according to a poster a few hours ago on the BLDP Yahoo board, there is a line in a recent BLDP document that said it was considering doing just that. Another potential competitor that the public may become aware of is Avista Labs, avistalabs.com , a division of Avista Corp., the old Washington Water Power. That company is run by a wheeler-dealer type and is highly likely to IPO Avista Labs before the year is out, especially since the implied market cap of Plug Power now exceeds that of all of Avista, which includes $5 billion per year utility. So the awareness of more competition on the horizon could hurt, but I don't believe in the end the problem will be competition. The problem will be that costs will come in way too high, and even at the target price demand will be negligible except in third world countries and farm houses in the boondocks. The average person no more wants to generate his own electricity in the cellar than he wants to own his own reservoir to get water out of his taps. There is indeed a huge potential market for fuel cells, but from utilities and larger industrial and commercial users, not from individual homeowners. I am long a lot of ERC, which I think has the best fc technology for stationary power and has a more reasonable market cap of $50 million.