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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Oliver Hahn who wrote (7489)	6/18/1999 12:06:00 AM
From: Oliver Hahn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11417

Re: million installed chips Just read on RB that current models call for 10,000 to mid 100,000s by year end. See ragingbull.com and some posts around there. Revenue per board expected conservatively 10-15 per month, though maybe 40-50 per month given the response of first adopters (most enthusiastic and likely stockholders). I would still be surprised if they can ramp up fast enough to hit the high end, but that should become more clear with upcoming quarterly reports and announcements. One immediate question is how much content is ready to go. Figuring average full price of content is $30 (pretty arbitrary, but it is the threshold for me before I consider quite carefully what I buy, and jives with typical shelf prices for a variety of consumer software packages), and average joe is interested in maybe 10% of available titles, and we are talking purchase of 12 titles per year, so they better have 120+ titles ready to roll. So we should look for 100-200 titles available next year to keep up steam. Granted, flood gates could open, but one should keep an eye on that title count to see when there is enough available to keep the average jane's interest over a year. If the above estimates are correct, maybe can expect an average of 500,000 chips installed over the course of next year. Then say $400 of purchases per chip (in line with above model) and 10% cut to WAVX, and we are looking at $20 million revenue for next year, perhaps enough to just cover costs. That would be a nice start. Does anyone know what average consumer spends on software per year? From that number, would have to discount for percentage that would reasonably be featured in WAVE system. Oliver

To: Oliver Hahn who wrote (7489)	6/18/1999 7:28:00 AM
From: ecommerceman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11417

Oliver--I don't have any idea when we'll see 1 million chips installed, although I'll be astonished (and delighted) if it's by the end of the year. Truman's report from the NYC roadshow seemed encouraging, and if I understand him right the initial Haup rollout has significantly exceeded business model expectations. How much of that is due to highly-motivated stockholders like us (alas, not like me as I'm a Mac owner) is hard to say. Truman's Intelecast references certainly seemed intriguing; I'm not a tech-head like many others on this thread, but to me that seems like the most exciting agreement that we've made, and was responsible for persuading me to buy shares at $22 after having made my first purchase at less than $4.