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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Compadre who wrote (17759)	6/19/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

Jaime; It seems the way they manipulate the data taht to be exact is not possible. Some of the spikes down are very short after a gap up & also don't show up in latter data. -------------- I watch the NDX more than any and at times exclusively as I'm trading the QQQ. It appears to me that on days such as the 50pt Gap up on the 16th while it didn't and may not fill physically at that point, on the 17th we had a 20pt spike down right at the open, then on the 18th we had a 30pt spike down right at the open, they were so fast that in essence unless one anticipated these there was no way to play them ,like right down and right back up. All I can figure is if the Market Makers get caught short on the gap ups, they have a way of latter doing some fast spike downs to unwind and just where at is a relative thing as long as they get 50pts back by hook or crook it don't always have to be at the same point. The QQQ did gap back down a total 50 NDX points in two fast spike moves but you can bet very few retail traders got in on them. Ever since I had a trade taken back from me on 5/27 , (that had confirmed a fill) I have been very critical of the data and watchful too. Just how the NDX works on a dynamic running basis I'm not sure but it does seem they have a way of injecting a slight fudge factor in either direction then after the market close doing an adjustment. While this always seems to favor the position the Market Makers have I'm sure they have the "perfect" excuse for the adjustments also certain anomalies in the index that you can see in real time just seem to vanish after the fact. While mostly they do not amount to much it's enough that over time they add up. ------------------------ I've had considerable experience with using fudge factors myself in pumping bunkers ( which I can justify ) but If I were to explain them it wouldn't look good. <G> While evidence shows me that most no load mutual funds are using a fudge factor on their closing Navs , it's "not" factual evidence and as such it can't be used to make a case. They normally apply it only when they have substantial inflows or outflows and over time it more or less balances out for the longer term investor but it adds a slight penalty to market timing fund switchers. ( a hidden load ). -------------------- The best I can figure on an average in trading the QQQ, all things equal even a good short term retail trader is at a 20pt disadvantage to the NDX "the market nut" I've been wanting to find a way to position trade in order to reduce the amount of times the "nut" as well as commissions get to me. So far I'm not having a lot of luck with it, about the time I think I get it right , here comes something like a Wednesday morning to take it all back. <G> Like they say in a card game "if you can't see who the sucker is , it's you" Jim