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Technology Stocks : Osicom(FIBR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elliott Dunwody who wrote (9751)	6/18/1999 10:50:00 AM
From: steve worthington	Respond to of 10479

Oppenheimer Info (from heels on RB) ragingbull.com By: heels Reply To: 24503 by regreb Friday, 18 Jun 1999 at 8:00 AM EDT Post # of 24511 Shiek & Pj . . . don't read. No need to bother you guys with any optimism. And pj, for the life of me, if you really believe Osicom has "planted" Cyzen or anyone else for that matter, why on earth would you invest a solitary penny in this company? That's irrational. Oh well. Anyway, I had an interesting talk with Rodrigo yesterday. He attended the Oppenheimer conference in NYC on Tuesday. Some interesting information about both the Gigamux and Netsilicon came out of the conference (which I have heard from three separate people who attended). Gigamux: Par and Ron expect to come pretty close to the 10% goal stated last fall. You figure it out: 100 million+ in contract awards by the close of this year. Netsilicon is getting 20 new design wins each quarter. A nine-month period elapses between design win and orders. Rodrigo took these numbers and projects a 25% sales increase per quarter, which he says is conservative. Thus, the 5.8 million becomes 7.25, then 9.06, then 11.32, and then 14.16. Thus, running one year out from the current quarter (7.25, if projection holds), we've got a 41.79 million company. Rodrigo ran these numbers, calculated fixed and variable costs, and compared the resulting numbers with similar companies. Using a PE of 50 for the sector (given rapid growth), he figured that the market cap of Netsilicon six months out should be 270 million; one year out, 450 million. That's 22/share and 37/share, respectively. He stressed to me that it is these fundamentals--both of Gigamux and Netsilicon--that account for the recent buying pressure (also, he bought a "few" more shares yesterday). He's not worried about the timing of the IPO. I asked if he thought we would ever get shares in Netsilicon, and he said that was certainly the intent and that Par certainly wants to distribute shares to the shareholders, especially since he's the largest shareholder. He has no reason to believe that the company will do anything other than what Par said it would do: seek a tax-free distribution to the shareholders. I asked him about the short position. He said that as long as Osicom continues to be a company without black ink on the bottom line, the short interest will remain and perhaps increase. My own two-cents worth: I think we'll get an IPO announcement in the next week or so (but I must admit I thought the same thing several weeks ago). I would imagine that the underwriter is insisting on a way to insulate the Osicom-held shares from Osicom control, probably through some sort of voting-trust arrangement. I'm told there are various approaches they could use. We'll see, and as the great philospher from Texas once said, "We'll know what we know when we know it." Good luck, all longs. Heels P.S. I know someone who bought a few June 10's a week or so ago at 11/16. Smart guy. Doubled his money. Might triple it. Wish it were I. Interesting day shaping up. What will happen at 12? (Voluntary Disclosure: Position- Long; ST Rating- Strong Buy; LT Rating- Strong Buy)