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Technology Stocks : WAVX Anyone? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wooly who wrote (7495)6/18/1999 10:16:00 PM
From: Oliver Hahn  Respond to of 11417
 
Wooly,

I have looked at software and music so far because those are the lines of business that I can get some estimates for. I have read a bit about inTellicast and MyPublish, but I don't have numbers in my notes. I would be glad to include those lines of business if there are some reasonable estimates of how those lines will progress over the next couple of years, the critical bootstrapping time. As for chip revenues, when I last brought that up this board had a fit that I would call WAVX a chip company; perhaps jas singh can update us on his opinion of whether WAVX is a chip company or not. Frankly, my developing opinion is that WAVX will have to give the chips away in order to ensure enough installed base, one of the most critical parameters for their business model. I take a cue from the credit card industry: with a few holdouts, annual fees on credit cards are a thing of the past. In other words, jane consumer isn't interested in paying for the opportunity to spend money. It would be foolish to take a profit on the chips if that in any way slowed hardware sales. Maybe they can cover costs, but I wouldn't expect much more. (One could argue that utilities charge hookup fees, but the WAVX business isn't that mature yet.) That being said, the company must still get scrutinized as if it were a hardware company at this point: there should be inventories of chips waiting to get sent to OEMs and distributors, I would expect some hardware revenues recorded, foundries should be signed up, etc. It may end up being a services company, but for now the most critical issue is installed hardware base.

Oliver

[edit: see
ragingbull.com
for some comments on potential hardware problems/challenges]