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Technology Stocks : COM21 (CMTO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Laubach who wrote (594)	6/18/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: lml	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2347

Hi Mark: Glad & fortunate to have you contribute here. Your insight into the certification process is invaluable. You communicate in a manner that easily understood -- & that is just as valuable. Question (I'm still learning this stuff) . . . what does PHY stand for. Pat, re: If you have access to a Dain Rauscher Wessels report, I recommend you request their latest. They explain it all there. I can get access to the report. If you or Mark need, I can provide.

To: Mark Laubach who wrote (594)	6/20/1999 3:54:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 2347

Mark --- Thanks for your observations regarding the DOCSIS process. The buzz that says 1.2 is the key to the Rosetta Stone is pretty loud -- and it may be true --- but to think it'll happen in the next 12 to 18 months takes a leap of faith. And as you've pointed out, if the next two waves are as time-intensive as the first, it'll be a long time before they finalize 1.2. I'm actually glad certification is so difficult. The harder the process, the higher the barriers to entry. What some may not realize is that success is based on more than certification. It's a little like running the Boston Marathon. You have to qualify to be an official entrant, but from then on the race is about quality and performance. Dain Rauscher Wessels wrote a report based on the recent cable show, available from Multex: 207.18.193.112 A few quotes: "On the DOCSIS front, while domestic cable operators are increasingly looking to deploy DOCSIS-based solutions, wide scale deployments are not expected for several months due to the lack of large quantities of DOCSIS-certified modems and DOCSIS-qualified cable modem termination systems (CMTS). Consequently, in the near term, we believe cable operators will continue to deploy proprietary systems that offer superior performance to meet subscriber demand, which bodes well for Com21. Additionally, in the international market, where standards are yet to be ratified, proprietary systems continue to be deployed in large quantities. CableLabs is expected to announce results of current wave of DOCSIS certification sometime next week, and we believe that Com21 is well positioned to obtain certification. . . . Finally, relative to the June quarter, we continue to believe the quarterly business is quite strong, and remain comfortable with our June-quarter estimates of a loss of ($0.06) on a fully-taxed basis on revenues of $20.9 million. We expect Com21 to report deploying between 80 and 90 new CMTS, mostly in international markets. Modem shipments are expected to be strong and possibly reach 50,000 as the company increases its penetration of current and new neighborhoods. . . . [Speaking of the overall market, the report says:] The operator's cable system must be two-way ready in able to support [these] new applications. In the meantime, those well-positioned equipment vendors are focused on establishing strong customer relationships in order to help deploy these next-generation broadband applications while expanding their product portfolios to include support for data, voice, and video connectivity. There are no changes to our estimates. We continue to rate CMTO shares Strong Buy-Aggressive with a price target of $40 based on 10X calendar 1999 revenues, consistent with other high-growth franchise networking names."