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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Q. who wrote (1416)	6/18/1999 10:10:00 PM
From: Mark L.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Re MCHM: In addition to your excellent points, they are going to face a prolonged Phase III on Topiglan. Phase III's are tough to begin with, but in MCHM's case, because Topiglan is a cream that allows absorption of active ingredients through the skin prior to sex, they will probably have to provide data on side-effects to the woman as well. I also wouldn't be surprised if the FDA required data on Topiglan's effect on sexually-transmitted diseases like herpes before they issued an NDA. And, even if Topiglan works, there will have to be a lot of fiddling with dosage. All in all, a very long process with certainly no more than an average likelihood of getting an NDA (I believe that's been running around 30% for non-cancer/AIDS drugs which have completed Phase II). I think it's likely that MCHM will get some kind of deal from someone: after all, there's a lot of big pharma money floating around. However, if they get a paltry amount and have to shoulder the burden of the Phase III themselves, then I will be adding to my already substantial short position. If they do the Phase III mostly themselves, there won't be any floor to the stock price as they burn through their cash and float convertibles.