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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (17859)	6/18/1999 10:19:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, true, sentiment didn't get oversold but every sentiment indicator except investors intelligence improved considerably. consensus inc. down to 39%, market vane 35%, AAII 32/40/28. for a small correction these were quite good readings. my chief gripe is that no high volume sell-off occurred. but apparently lots of money was sitting on the sidelines pre-CPI, mindful of what april CPI did to the market. note that AMG reports hefty inflows for the last week; if the market continues up, more money will be drawn in. it will be the last hurrah, but it could be huge. wait for impossible targets for the Dow being proclaimed in public forums of all sorts and watch for signs of utter capitulation by the bears. i have a theory that most bears will be shorn of capital when the time to short the hell out of this market comes - and they will have gone long with what they have left. still, i concede that there is no indisputable proof yet that we will march higher right away. some longer term technical indicators still look awful and the nutz have bumped into resistance, unable to overcome it. after all we have had only one strong up day and a little bit of continuation. it is quite possible that we have a trading range for a while during which the sentiment indicators deteriorate, or we get marginal new highs that serve to increase bullishness to the point were reversals start, like the july top of last year. it's still a market best approached day by day, and next week's action will reveal if the CPI rally was a fluke after all or not. regards, hb