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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gator who wrote (409)	6/18/1999 11:01:00 PM
From: Exsrch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48092

If PDG and HM look interesting take a gander at ABX. Looks like barrick will have about $700 million in cash next quarter (depending on cap expenditure, depreciation and average price per once sold). Overall, if gold continues to slide ABX get stronger in relation to their peer companies. They also have $1.5 billion in credit for a war chest. With $2.2 billion cash in total they could almost eat up a sizable competitor. With the following implications: - ABX would put additional downward pressure by forward selling all the acquisitions production - Exact higher cantango on greater volume and increase earning perportionaly - Force more competitiors to close unprofitable mines - When gold prices stabilize ABX would exact a premium P/E - Greater volume production with effective cap expense to increase operational efficency will make ABX the lowest cost producer in the next year - The likes of NEM won't be able to keep up with Cap Expense when they are in negative cash flow. - Even PDG and HM are not focused on growth and ops effiency. They just want to conserve cash in this low AU price environment I think ABX is positioning for a consolidation, could they buy or would they want to buy PDG, HM or NEM. Do they have the balls. If they are successful (in buying nem or pdg) they could be the worlds #1 profitable company if gold recovers. Your thoughts would be appreciated. Cheers, Exsrch

To: Gator who wrote (409)	6/18/1999 11:31:00 PM
From: Wade	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48092

Gator, Nice move on PDG today. Both ABX and PDG are very nicely hedged. They will survive low POG. I am trying to read if XAU or WG580(TC2000) is ready to go up or go down. Looks like the current prices is safe for a while. But, not sure about the direction. I think the POG will remain weak until the strength of dollar start weakening. But, that is not in a foreseeable short term future yet. I read a few more bullish forecasts lately, however, all of them based on speculation of how much gold was sold short and short squeezes. Almost all of them us "if", "may be", or "just imagine" those kinds of speculative words to support their theories. None of them use "definietly", "absolutely" or give any names of institutions shorting gold. Even they do not sure if LTCM really shorted gold. I have to doubt if their reports have any fact unless they have any direct evidence. I remember an old joke: A stock broker went to heaven. However, he could not get in because the long waiting line in front of the heaven's gate. He spread a rumor that a lot of gold was found in hell. Many people rushed to hell to find gold. Very soon the line shortened to only himself. St. Peter asked if he is ready to go to heaven. He hesitates for a moment said: Well, since so many people believe there is gold in hell ...may be there is some truth in it. So, he followed them ..... I thought about this joke for at least a hundred times. I asked myself: Who am I really kidding? Have a nice weekend. Sincerely, Wade