To: GO*QCOM who wrote (32706 ) 6/20/1999 10:22:00 AM From: Art Bechhoefer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
The IBD article you cite is interesting indeed, but leaves open the question of which companies are going to make money from the "consumer phase." QUALCOMM is certainly going to be one of the top companies on making money: Handsets, ASICs, and patent royalties. Need we say more? MICROSOFT presents a different question altogether. Without a doubt, their software is among the most used for one or more aspects involving the Internet. But they give away their browser, so that isn't a money maker. They have Windows CE, which, as a small scale operating system for Internet access, including via wireless or web TV, is full of quirks and problems. While competitive, it may not DOMINATE the market the way the full Windows operating system does, and you make better profits when you dominate. (That's why Microsoft has a history, as shown in the antitrust litigation, of trying very hard to muscle its way into these new areas.) The bottom line here doesn't look very good for Microsoft. I think they will get stung in the antitrust suit, will be forced to pay damages, and will remain dominant only in the mature part of the PC software sector. Of the other companies mentioned in the article, I think CISCO, despite its current high price, could actually be undervalued. My reasoning is based on its proprietary switching equipment, which handles voice and digital transmissions far more efficiently and at lower cost than the more traditional telephone switches made by Lucent and Northern Telecom, and some smaller companies. Replacing most of the telephone switches in the U.S. alone would be quite a business! Cisco is also in an almost unique position of providing key equipment for both wired and wireless applications.