To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (46673 ) 6/19/1999 5:02:00 PM From: Gary Burton Read Replies (1) | Respond to
George-I was just looking at a LONG term EW picture of the WTI oil price. The author is from Prechter's group and deals with the futures prices of commodities. Here in essence is what he sees--- Several months ago, I (Gary) had predicted that oil was close to hitting a long term bottom. In doing so, I anticipated that wti would slightly undercut the 1980's low of $9.75--which it turned out it did not, basing at $10.35 last Dec.... The Prechter analyst now thinks that the Decline from the all time top in the high 40's will therefore end in the (E) wave of a long term ABCDE triangle, where the mid80's low of 9.75 was A, the 1997 peak of approx 27ish was B, the Dec98 low of 10.35 was C and we are now in D up. Since the prior B wave up was 4yrs or so, he thinks D may not top out until late 2002 but that it will top out below the 27ish peak of B. He is ultimately targeting a test of $25 for the top of D although I note that there is a long term downtrend line coming in around 21-22...There is nothing that says the D wave must last in the order of 4 yrs, just that only 1yr through Dec99 would be somewhat out of sinc. At any rate, once D tops out, the Prechter analyst expects one last E wave down to again retest the low and this time will base at about $12 (above 10.35).He expects a deep retest because the 10.35 was so close to the A wave low of 9.75.......As to how D will unfold to its ultimate top, he thinks August crude will very soon top out in the mid-19's and then drop to the 14.91-16.28 area where it will regroup to form the final push up of the D wave into the mid 20's (below 27).........As to what happens after the end of E down--a long term major move UP (past 27 as a minimum as I see it)
