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Biotech / Medical : T/FIF Portfolio -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (986)	6/19/1999 3:31:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1073

>> Ideally you would want to know why each person does well, and when they outperform. << Exactly. A team of cooperating investors, pooling talents and research with the goal of insight, not just knowledge. >> I hunkered down in microcap biotechs << Your timing last Fall was great. It was fun to watch. Since then, some of your microcaps have threatened to become noncaps. It would be good to see things reverse for some of them. >> I wish I could say buy Peter and Rick's top two picks--but I don't really know these guys, we know they're brutally honest on these threads, so that is good, but in general you don't want to go around buying what others recommend "do your own DD" is the cliche. << Yup. However, I've been making my calls very public since Spring '95, and I deserve respect for what I've accomplished. Certainly, Peter was remarkable in '98, and seems to be doing just fine in '99. But your point is clear...... my picks on Monday and going forward could be rotten. >> I think there is one thing we do know--that the biotech mutual funds are probably not the way to go. << The collective efforts here at SI constitute the world's best biotech research. Some threads for good companies are weak. Some threads for lousy companies have lots of noise, but no data to speak of. The remainder of threads..... the quiet ones for good companies and the noisy ones with lots of data...... those are the ones where the profits will be uncovered. Again, a review of the Agouron and -- now -- Sugen threads, start to finish, will help the newbies and vets alike. Thanks, Mike. Rick

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (986)	6/19/1999 11:25:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 1073

< I'm up 20% YTD, but that is meaningless in nanocap land, where both the market risk volatility as well as individual stock risk is incredible.> I know that this is conventional wisdom [esp. here in Chicagoland, home of the efficient market theory], but if homework is done and the story understood I have to disagree strongly. Both Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet have shunned this belief in favor of analysis of a company & industry fundamentals as well as management. Neither are diversification fans any longer, as they look for misunderstood stories and sectors, start buying and hope they go lower. Of course you have to know yourself as well... If one will be too upset if SEPR goes down another 10 points to hold on, then one owns too much. Perhaps a better example is realestate in the early 90's, while theoretically very volatile... buildings and REITS were selling at prices that implied soup lines and black plague... AND the government was financing for you. Now you can have some of the best minds in the world working for you on projects that represent fantastic "expected value" IMO... like a 200 to one payoff in roulette with only 36 numbers!!! Only problem is..... there are a lot more than 2 green 0's. :) DAK