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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Exsrch who wrote (414)6/23/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: Exsrch  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48092
 
Has anyone looked at the Capital Expenditure of the blue chip gold stocks? It looks like ABX is investing far in excess of their peers in capex. This should have far reaching implications if gold stays below $300 for any length of time (two or more quarters).

- ABX will become operationally stronger and reduce their cash costs
- As Depreciation flatten their total production cost will fall
- When AU prices recover ABX will be able to expand production scale more economically than peers (e.g. new roaster etc).
- All capex is funded by cash flow. Some peers are funding capex with negative cash flow

Over all I think ABX is a far better risk than other blue chips. Often NEM gets a preminum as AU prices rise; however, the market does not take into account fundamental operational excellence nor the premium gold sales program at ABX. Barrick is clearly poised to become the premier gold company on this planet if AU stays below $300 for an extended period. This will happen through acquisitions (I believe) when other companies faced with negative cash flow, low capex spending, loss and degradation of shareholder value will look to link up with strength.

Your comments would be appreciated.

Exsrch