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Gold/Mining/Energy : Position Trading in Canada -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ward Nicholson who wrote (1298)	6/19/1999 9:14:00 PM
From: keith massey	Respond to of 2259

Ward I have been gold bug ever since I started trading. I want to see it break above the triple/quad bottom prices (around 271-274) on good strength (at least one tall white candle with good news coverage) before I start to have any faith in gold. ABX and PDG are my long time favorites plays on the long side when gold is moving. If it wasn't for all the dumping, a single FED hike would send gold above $300. However with all this negative feeling hanging around in my opinion it is going to take either a series of hikes or an announcement of one or more countries canceling their sale of gold to move it substantially. I still think people will use gold as a short term Y2K hedge later this year...I say around 4 months out we should see some good moves. Still watch it ever day and always have a couple gold stocks on the ticker Best Regards KEITH

To: Ward Nicholson who wrote (1298)	6/19/1999 10:57:00 PM
From: Thomas Tam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2259

Looking at ABX for a trade when it heads toward $24. However, haven't caught it. Looks like another move towards $30+, which is a decent return. Why do you like over PDG over ABX? Seems PDG is spreading itself thin with recent acquisitions. Why did they pay so much for Getchell? How's life otherwise for you Ward? Later

To: Ward Nicholson who wrote (1298)	6/19/1999 11:15:00 PM
From: VisionsOfSugarplums	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2259

Gold: Ward, you brought up PDG the other day and I've been thinking along the same lines and also thinking of going long on some stocks. I think there's still a bit of time yet since it doesn't appear that gold has bottomed ($250?) but I'm not sure that a bottom is going to drive the gold stocks much lower (through their support levels). I've been trying to research gold inventories to get a feel for supply/demand issues (make sure no big buildups) and potential psychological impact - the trader show mentioned today that NY inventories were around 800 thousand or so oz., whereas the norm over several years appeared to be 2.5 million oz. Don't know what European/S. African inventories are, which is what I've been trying to find. The common theory: that significant over-leasing of gold and high short levels has driven the price of gold to where it is and that gold prices will naturally rise once the shorts start to cover (how much the price increases depending on how orderly the covering is). The sale of gold by the European central banks, and by Russia may indicate the bottom and shorts may cover in this period (particularly if the risk of future reserve sales becomes lower). I would imagine that the central banks would find it prudent to maintain a certain level of gold inventory - I don't think the concept of gold as support or backup for currencies has been abolished, as per Greenspan and look at Russia. Countries may wish to retain a certain level of gold inventories yet still the leases/shorts will no longer have "the big sale theory" overhanging the market despite the fact that not all reserves have been sold. There is also the much bandied about theory that fed concern over short covering (and potential spike and panic in gold prices) is also the reason for several sales from reserves (ie/gold manipulation, keep the price of gold down so that panic covering doesn't occur) - what will be the impact when the big sales from reserves have occurred. The sale by the European banks is intended to be orderly - perhaps in part so that short covering will also be orderly and that positions may be ascertained (have read comments that a lot of gold has been "over-leased"). Russia, of course is a different story. Not sure what their impact will be, don't know how much they're selling. Then add in the potential start of inflationary economies worldwide and interest rate increases, Y2K, political instability in the Eastern hemisphere... Anyways, I am not a gold bug, and wanted to check out a few more things. I'm bullish on gold, however don't want to jump the gun. Of course, then it's always easy to miss a strong uptick when/should it occur - can't always pick the bottom. (Bias will influence weighting, though). I've been looking at a few charts this weekend on the golds and noticed Friday's uptick in stock prices (PDG, ABX, GLG), which may have been related to timing of interest rate discussions, tends to track bond movements?. Some weren't up (TVX, K, CBJ). Going to spend more time, as well, determining which stocks are the better choices given the changes in the industry. [Aside: I notice TVX rejected a merger with CBJ but has a strong alliance with Normandy Mining (who also has a strong equity position in TVX, and recently bought shares at $2 per). Maybe they're lining up to do an eventual merger/takeover]. Regards, t.