This guy might be leaning the wrong way>
Telecom's 21st century network takes shape
The Dominion
Murray Milner is quietly making multimillion
dollar decisions. ADRIENNE PERRY reports
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DR MURRAY MILNER has a tough job.
He is one of the key people in Telecom tasked with deciding the future
technologies to be used in the core of Telecom's business -- its network.
That task is not made easy by the difficulties of trying to decide which
international technology standards are going to dominate, when is the right
time to start spending the hundreds of millions of dollars it will cost Telecom
to dig itself deeper into the Internet world, and how long decisions can be
delayed before competitive forces make it essential to move.
Presidents, vice-presidents and an army of footsoldiers from the world's
biggest network equipment vendors have been queuing outside Telecom HQ
in Wellington over the last nine months, knowing that eventually Telecom is
going to have to unlock the chequebook. That seems to be about to happen.
Telecom has aging [ NEC ] switches at the heart of its core network
throughout the country handling fixed line traffic. At the beginning of last
year, after an extensive review, it decided to delay the costly decision to
move to the next generation of switches from NEC, or some other supplier,
until international standards were clearer.
But since that decision was made, Telecom network development staff have
not been idle. And right now, it seems that some very big decisions for the
fixed network are quietly being taken. As general manager network
development, Dr Milner is instrumental.
In the cellular network, Telecom uses Ericsson switches for its cellular traffic,
and recently issued a tender for CDMA technology, an expensive departure
from the amps cellular technology it currently uses.
All decisions are interrelated. The key driver is customers' voracious
requirements for ever-increasing capacity to handle massive amounts of data
traffic. Telecom must meet that demand in the most cost-effective way for
itself and its customers.
Voice-to-data volume is running around 70:30 in favour of voice but moving
rapidly towards break-even within 12-18 months. Revenue is likely to
favour voice for some time yet. But, given the desire of Telecom chief
executive Dr Roderick Deane to transform Telecom into an online company,
Dr Milner says it is now looking at all network decisions in terms of data first
with voice add-ons rather than the other way round, as in the past.
And, while some vendors may be getting frustrated, Telecom has been busy.
It is in close discussion with some switch suppliers on packet based add-in
switches to the network, and expects to have contracts with more than one
supplier signed by the end of June. It has issued at least two significant
tenders in recent months, has been buying lots of high-speed, high capacity
ATM switches to thread throughout its network, and plans to have several
other key network components in place by the end of the year. Dr Milner is
also able to define where Telecom stands on the Internet Protocol switch
debate, at least for the present, and where it would like to stand. However,
that is likely to be a moving target.
Some matters may be simplified by the fact that increasingly, switches will be
able to handle both cellular and fixed network traffic.
While the old Neax 61e NEC fixed line circuit switches will be left in place
in the public switched telephone network for some time, Telecom is pursuing
an addition strategy, which will see new generation packet-based switches
added into the network. Telecom has already installed several of these
switches from Newbridge.
Dr Milner says Telecom is working with Cisco and Newbridge, has had
offers from NEC on its next-generation Sigma boxes, and Nortel and Lucent
also have variations on the solution. He declined last week to give any
further details about which companies had made it to final negotiation stage
other than agreeing that orders would be "potentially sizable", and Telecom
would be unlikely to pursue a single-vendor packet switch strategy. A tender
was not issued.
A tender was, however, issued for dense wave division multiplexing
equipment -- a vital component of the core network, and informed sources
say that Telecom has shortlisted Lucent and Pirelli. This equipment, to be
installed in main centres by the end of the year, will allow 32 times 2.5
gigabit/second transmission and may be upgraded next year to speeds of
over 100 times 2.5Gbps.
Pirelli is currently supplying DWDM equipment that allows 8 times 2.5
gigabit/second transmission but it has been introduced in pockets and a more
concerted approach will give much more capacity and allow Telecom to
manage that capacity in very large chunks. It will also reduce costs as the
cost per bit per second per kilometre goes down very rapidly.
Dr Milner says ultimately the whole network will be turned into a fotonics
network which allows telcos to manage by wavelength rather than by
traditional bits per second. This will allow Telecom to control the way in
which data comes in and out of the network much more flexibly.
To avoid "sucking the Atlantic dry with a straw", Telecom is looking at
boosting network access technology. ADSL will allow more capacity across
copper network for consumers at all times of the day and will also allow that
traffic to bypass exchanges and go straight to and from the Internet access
company. Small businesses and branch offices could also use ADSL or
SDSL technology.
For larger corporates Telecom has other plans. It intends to install in building
basements an intelligent multiplexor box from [ 3Com ] /Xylan that will
provide data and telephony services to individual floors, in either
multi-tenanted or single-tenanted buildings. That service is being trialled at
Telecom and Dr Milner says customers are already expressing interest.
The new service will allow customers to terminate an ethernet local area
network (lan) directly onto the basement box so it looks like they are running
virtual ethernet end to end -- from one customer lan to another customer lan
or from one customer lan to a customer server farm (a mainframe or an
intranet server cluster).
The broadband access server, connecting to fibre, will allow higher Internet
access speeds and better management of intranets, extranets, and security.
Customers will not have to worry to the same extent about managing things
like frame relay, says Mr Milner.
He says Telecom would likely pay to install the product in the building and
customers would share costs on a per call basis. Telecom would effectively
end up managing the basement box but there are "plenty of partners" that will
take it further. "Where there are multiple tenants it will probably end up
being managed to the floors."
Dr Milner uses a voice over IP phone on his desk and Telecom is evaluating
such integration strategies. "People get sick of all this complicated wiring. It
costs a lot of money and people get sick of adds, moves and changes. In
future, it will be a selection of connectors attached to an ethernet network on
the wall and voice or data will be plugged into it." Such a service may be
available to some customers willing to change their PBXes shortly after the
broadband network access server is launched in a few months.
Varying levels of ethernet service could be offered. "A single user might
subscribe to best efforts copper service for e-mail but for voice may have
gold. Platinum may be video or low-latency data services."
These options will be offered first to big businesses but may permeate down
to medium-sized businesses. Exactly how medium-sized businesses will be
addressed has not, however, been finally ascertained.
The big network debate raging here and overseas hinges round the
introduction of Internet Protocol technology, and how or whether to
integrate it with telecommunications firms' existing networks. Internet
Protocol technology is relatively cheap to deploy, but the problem for telcos
is that it does not allow the highest quality service.
Telecom has been enthusiastically spending money on high-speed,
high-capacity ATM switches from Siemens, designed to increase data
capacity and options.
In the short term, Telecom will run an IP layer over an ATM layer over an
SDH layer (supplied by Fujitsu) over DWDM over fibre. In theory IP could
be run directly over DWDM on a fibre or copper base. But Telecom uses
the full path, says Dr Milner, to ensure quality of service for voice, video and
data.
"At the moment a lot of work is going on to enable IP to have quality of
service. There are no standards and it's going to take a while to get there.
We'd love it tomorrow but it's not here."
Companies differ. Nortel believes it can go straight to SDH and drop out
ATM. Cisco, Mr Milner says, would use IP and ATM layers and make
SDH optional.
Telecom has bought a lot of SDH equipment from Fujitsu in the past, and
may begin dropping out that layer gradually, says Dr Milner. Telecom would
like to go IP direct to DWDM "as soon as we can" but right now it's not
practical, he says.
However once the DWDM equipment is installed, and "wavelengths are
sorted out", it's quite straightforward to run a combination of high quality
service and the lesser quality "best efforts" (IP to DWDM direct) traffic --
"either on separate wavelengths or combined depending on where the
standards go. We don't care". There is a "critical window" of one to four
years where ATM will be essential, he says.
On the cellular front, Telecom has a tender out for CDMA second
generation cellular technology.
Dr Milner says no decisions have been made about a CDMA vendor, and
denies suggestions that Lucent is the frontrunner. He says Telecom has not
decided whether to pursue a CDMA path, and might choose to continue its
present TDMA amps path as companies such as [ AT&T ] Wireless in the
United States are doing. Going CDMA means spending big upfront but less
later on an upgrade path to WCDMA -- the multimedia third generation
technology more suited to the Internet world. Deciding to stay with amps
means a difficult and more costly upgrade path when the time comes to
move to third generation standards.
The decision has been complicated by the decision to halt the PCS 2Ghz
wireless spectrum auctions for a Waitangi Tribunal hearing on Maori
spectrum rights. Telecom had worked out a multitude of complex scenarios
and was prepared for the auction when it was abruptly halted. At presstime
the tribunal outcome was not known, but a decision to award some
spectrum to Maoris would alter Telecom's strategies.
Observers say that Telecom has to buy some spectrum before making a final
decision on CDMA strategy, as the outcome of the auction will affect how
much it is prepared to pay for a CDMA solution.
Dr Milner says Telecom can offer similar services just as effectively around
800Mhz as it can at 2Ghz. "The issue is how much capacity do you need?"
Telecom is in no danger of running out of spectrum, he says, on the Amps A
and Amps B bands. Digital amps, micro and pico cells and, for that matter,
CDMA all allow more efficient use of spectrum. "There are many ways in
which you can get additional capacity. Another way is to get spectrum. In
terms of highly built-up areas like main centres having 2Ghz spectrum has
advantages. If we have rapidly increasing volumes, as we hope we will have
both in terms of voice and data traffic, it's a matter of playing with all the
parameters you have available."
He is not particularly worried by Telstra's rapid deployment of second
generation CDMA, nor by the fact that Telecom customers will not be able
to easily roam in Australia from January 1 when Australia will abandon amps
and run only CDMA and GSM technologies. He says roaming will improve
whatever path Telecom goes down, and cites increased use of digital amps
in the United States.
Given Dr Milner's weighty responsibilities, and the fact that he's handling a
sizable chunk of Telecom's 1999-2000 $700 million-plus capital expenditure
budget, it's surprising he does not come across as more worried. But as one
of Telecom's few senior staff who date from Post Office days, he's probably
learned to take it all in his stride.
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(Copyright 1999) |
