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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6647)	6/19/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: Frodo Baxter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Just because of your PCTV play, I'll answer all your questions. >Isn't it all a bit pathetic? Quantum must make a tracking stock to unlock value???? Yeah well, are we all that dumb? yes. yes. yes. >Are these same people who got the industry stuck in this vortex of over production and no profits running this business? So what. You don't blame Exxon for the price of oil, or Alcoa for the price of aluminum, do you? >So, they were suppose to earn 31 cents and now they'll have a loss. You have to wonder how much of a loss or profit they had been counting on with HDD? Desktop was expected to be slightly profitable, losses in high-end, but trending to profitability next quarter. >I've always thought Quantum should have made more profits if the Tape business were as hot as they say. The breakout of tape earnings are in the filings. >Can we really count on predictions for Tape earnings 1 year out anymore than we can count on HDD predictions? Especially going into a new product cycle? Nope. Remember, they were saying >100% tape growth a couple years ago. But with only a 25% market share in a booming backup market, hard to see how they could falter, short of totally screwing up the product cycle. >So, the pump begins, a cynical scenario. Will the Wall Street machine start the pump on Quantum? Nope. The fees they get on doing this deal don't merit a pump. An IPO/spin-off would have netted them a much higher incentive to drive the price up. >How much higher can the stock go as they sell into this media driven euphoria? Looking at relative value for other tech leaders, I'd say a 30 P/E for tape is conservative. >Can we buy Quantum shares in 2 months for under $20? Maybe the drive part only. >If BigFoot is history, will Quantum need to take some big charges to phase it out? No charges. Quantum is a very aggressive depreciator, and their virtual model means they don't spend much on CapEx anyway. That's why, despite all these losses on the drive side, they've managed to generate just as much cash flow on the drive side as on the tape side. That, by the way, is nothing short of incredible. >Worse yet, Is SDLT late? Nope. >Have you ever seen Mike Brown do a down beat presentation? Mikey's a star. Under his leadership, Quantum's been #1 in desktop for years. (I know that's like saying I'm the President... of Bangladesh) Pretty good pedigree, too. >They are loosing the low end to Seagate which would seem to mean they'll have seriously falling unit sales. You have any numbers to back this up? Didn't think so. >Are they able to find profitable niche products? Ever heard of Snap Server? >Can they do anything to support ASP? Nope. >Really, they just warned. BigFoot has nearly run it's course. Can they compete, and can they make any money as WD and perhaps Samsung go through months of death throws? Bigfoot is done because it was a 6G/plate platform. They can do that now with a 3.5" Fireball CX. Their #1 rank would kinda suggest that they're competitive. >Is SDLT on time? Yes. >You can always count on Mike Brown to be upbeat. How about Mike Cannon? Are they able to weather the IBM deal with Dell? Well, Maxtor has no upside drivers, so I'm sure Cannon isn't happy seeing his net worth evaporate. IBM Dell deal is inconsequential. >What happens to RDRT with Maxtor in trouble at Dell and WD going down the tubes? Readrite is in liquidity crisis mode. >Do you have a feeling where WD is going to make the first cuts? Internal projects, or IBM projects? Already posted. They next cuts will likely come on the 7200rpm enterprise, as they add a SCSI interface to the IBM Expert. Leaving them with Caviar and the 10K drive. Since 10K is competing with IBM, they might have to do a deal here, too. #reply-10151675

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (6647)	6/20/1999 5:16:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Respond to of 9256

<<You can always count on Mike Brown to be upbeat.>> I find it hard to be a MIchael Brown fan. Probably seven years without the high end ever being profitable and two or three years of catastophic losses on heads. Continued belief that the industry will act responsibly. Two or three years late on the tracking stock (at great expense to me!) DLT, QNTM's only bright spot acquired by accident. Without DLT, QNTM could very well have been history. -Z