India's generals ready to escalate Kashmir
conflict
By Julian West in New Delhi
THE deadly brinksmanship between India
and Pakistan escalated sharply yesterday
with India putting four divisions of strike
forces - as well as its navy - on high alert,
in preparation for a possible attack across
the international border, south of Kashmir.
India said the alert had been sounded in
response to reports of substantial Pakistani
troop movements along the frontier. With
40,000 Indian soldiers already in Kashmir, the build-up of troops on both
sides of the border represents the largest mobilisation of forces since military
manoeuvres in 1987 almost brought the two countries to war.
India also appears increasingly prepared to strike across the Line of Control
dividing Kashmir, using warplanes, ground and helicopter borne troops to cut
off supplies to Pakistani intruders still occupying positions within India. Either
move - whether an attack by India or Pakistan across the Punjab or
Rajasthan-Sindh borders, or a strategic operation across the LOC - would be
an act of war.
India's Strike Corps, comprising about 10,000 mechanised troops, armoured
formations and infantry divisions, as well as additional troops, have not yet
moved from their bases in Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh states. But the
Indian army said that they "have been warned to make preparations". Its navy
has also been put on high alert.
Military analysts now believe that in the absence of a political resolution to the
Kashmir crisis, which seems unlikely, the Indian army has two options: either
to fight a lengthy war of attrition in the Himalayas - with both the winter and a
general election looming in three months' time - or to seek permission for an
offensive against Pakistan.
So far, India's military has been restrained by its politicians, who still hope
international pressure will make Pakistan remove its forces from Indian
territory. Last week, President Clinton told Pakistan - which still maintains the
intruders are Indian Kashmiri militants - to remove its forces. India is hoping
for a similarly strong response from the G8 nations meeting this weekend.
But there are increasing calls from the Indian military, hampered by its inability
to cross the LOC, to mount a strike on the Pakistan side of the Kashmir
border. An Internet poll of 4,400 Indians published last week showed 81 per
cent in favour of an attack across the LOC.
"The restraints we've put on ourselves are out of strength, not weakness," said
a senior army officer. "But as of today," he added, emphasising the last word,
"we are not crossing the LOC." Last week, after bloody fighting, Indian
soldiers finally captured their first key Pakistani-held positions: Tololing, a
15,000ft mountain and the strategic highway between Srinagar and Leh; and
another mountain-top further north near the town of Batalik.
Fierce fighting is now raging on the cliffs of Tiger Hills, a 17,000ft peak,
beyond Tololing, where about 250 intruders are believed to be dug in, and on
another 17,000ft peak north of Batalik. The army says it has pushed the
intruders within two miles of the de facto border and the air force, which is
flying in a perilously narrow corridor between the mountains and the LOC,
also said that it had destroyed the intruders' largest administration and supply
camp near Batalik last week.
But while the assaults have provided stirring accounts of individual bravery,
they have also produced an endless procession of flag-covered coffins. The
official figure of about 150 dead and 500 wounded Indian soldiers is believed
to be far lower than the real number; and the army has said it expects that
2,000 soldiers will die if the conflict continues until September. It is
particularly concerned about the number of officers it is losing and is already
short of about 14,000 commissioned and non-commissioned men.
None the less, the response of the Indian public - to the death toll and the war
- has been overwhelmingly patriotic. Bereaved mothers have vowed to send
more children to fight; young widows have responded with tearful pride;
ordinary Indians have been donating blood as well as money; and the
government of one state has promised to rename a village after each dead
soldier. However, while India can sustain a war more easily than Pakistan -
which despite being on the verge of bankruptcy raised its defence budget 11
per cent last week - it is costing the country an estimated £3 million a day, an
enormous amount for a poor nation.
Moreover, the Indian army believes that the intrusion in Kargil, which appears
to consist of Pakistani regular soldiers in mufti, supported by Afghan
mercenaries and Islamic militants, is part of a larger, longer-term strategy by
Pakistan to seize large parts of Indian Kashmir; and that the heights, once
recaptured, will require an enormous outlay of men and armaments.
"The quickest way to finish this off would be to mount an attack elsewhere -
and we can do it," said a senior army officer. "We didn't have to confine
ourselves to this area or to these lines."
telegraph.co.uk |
