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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Techplayer who wrote (26462)	6/20/1999 3:37:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Brian and Gary - I find your discussion most interesting. The following is an excerpt from an article in this month's telecominvestor magazine. This article estimates no significant obsolesence of DESS switches (digital electronic switching systems) until about 2009. If this is correct, in the next 10 years, Lucent and Nortel will sell a lot of DESS switches as well as a lot of equipment to prolong the economic life of such switches. Cisco seems to realize this with their acquisition of Transmedia. Here is the excerpt: Based on the opinion of experts, vendor information, and our assessment of market demand and the timing between successive prior switching technologies, a new generation of packet switch, capable of replacing today's DESS switches, will be introduced near 2003. We expect the migration to packet switches to complete shortly after 2012. The corresponding obsolescence of DESS switches is expected to begin around 2004, and become significant about five years later. telecominvestormag.com Ken